Weekly Wrap

The stock market ended the week modestly higher, with the major averages grinding upward despite uneven sector leadership and shifting rate expectations ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%, and the DJIA added 0.5%, while small- and mid-cap stocks also participated, with the Russell 2000 up 0.8% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 up 0.4%.

Technology and growth areas helped support the broader market, highlighted by a 3.8% advance in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and a handful of solid weekly performances from mega-cap names, reflected in the 0.8% gain in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF. High-beta stocks also outperformed, with the Invesco High Beta ETF climbing 3.8%, signaling a continued willingness among investors to take on risk despite pockets of weakness in defensive sectors.

Sector leadership was mixed but tilted toward cyclical and growth-oriented areas. The Information technology and energy sectors both advanced 1.4% for the week, while the communication services (+0.8%) and consumer discretionary (+0.8%) posted more modest gains. In contrast, the health care (–2.7%), utilities (–4.5%), and consumer staples (–1.4%) sectors underperformed, extending the rotation away from defensives that has been building in recent weeks.

The broader tone of the week reflected a market that remains generally constructive but as investors continued to position cautiously ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Rate-cut expectations for next week held steady, and equities ultimately found enough support from semiconductors, mega-caps, and improved risk appetite to deliver a modestly positive weekly finish.

• Nasdaq Composite: +0.9%
• Russell 2000: +0.8%
• DJIA: +0.5%
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.4%
• S&P 500: +0.3%

Monday:

The stock market faced a broad-based retreat to start December as a sharp sell-off across Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies weighed on sentiment, sending the S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%), and DJIA (-0.9%) lower. 

Stocks steadily rebounded from the opening lows, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite nearly breaching their flatlines as the information technology sector (+0.1%) recovered from an early 1.3% loss. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 179.92, +2.92, +1.65%) was a standout across the mega-cap stocks, trading higher after announcing a strategic partnership with Synopsys (SNPS 438.29, +20.28, +4.85%) in which the companies will advance agentic AI engineering using GPUs, accelerated computing, and digital-twin technologies.

Apple (AAPL 283.10, +4.25, +1.52%) also notched a solid gain, which helped mask losses in over half of the sector's components. 

Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN 233.88, +0.66, +0.28%) was the only other "magnificent seven" name to capture a gain, which helped the consumer discretionary sector finish on its flatline. 

Alphabet (GOOG 315.12, -5.00, -1.56%), which has notably outperformed this quarter, faced some profit-taking. 

The energy sector (+0.9%) was the only sector to maintain any space above its flatline, supported by crude oil futures settling today's session $0.83 higher (+1.5%) at $59.38 per barrel. OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it will leave oil output levels steady for the first quarter of 2026.

Stocks were unable to maintain the rebound from opening lows, with eight S&P 500 sectors ultimately finishing in negative territory. 

The utilities sector (-2.4%) faced the widest loss as all but one of its components traded lower amid a rise in longer-term treasury yields, sending the sector below its 50-day moving average. 

The health care (-1.5%) sector also faced a considerable loss despite the U.S. and U.K. reaching a broad pharmaceutical pricing agreement in which the U.K. will boost NHS payments for new medicines and ease rebate pressures, while the U.S. will lift tariff threats and drop investigations into U.K. pricing practices. 

Moderna (MRNA 24.16, -1.82, -7.01%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 name, trading lower following a report from The Washington Post that the FDA is planning on imposing stricter standards for vaccine approvals due to alleged coronavirus vaccine deaths, though the link between the vaccine and the fatalities in question is contested. 

The industrials sector (-1.5%) finished similarly, with significant pressure coming from defense names amid some speculation that President Trump's plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war could be successful. The iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF closed with a 2.9% loss. 

Meanwhile, stocks with direct ties to the cryptocurrency market faced outsized losses. Coinbase Global (COIN 259.84, -12.98, -4.76%) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD 123.24, -5.25, -4.09%) were two of the worst-performing names in the financials sector (-0.9%), while Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR 28.98, -4.14, -12.50%) faced a double-digit loss as Ethereum slid alongside Bitcoin. Strategy Inc (MSTR 171.42, -5.76, -3.25%) reversed from its session lows but still finished with a loss. 

The small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.3%) underperformed amid today's risk-off sentiment, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.5%) finished with a loss similar to that of its larger-cap counterparts. 

Ultimately, today's broad-based retreat was reminiscent of earlier-November sessions, not the rally that came amid a spike in rate-cut expectations near the month's end. While expectations for further Fed easing remain elevated, the market was subject to some profit-taking from last week's highs, while a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and a dip in U.S. Treasuries weighed on sentiment. Fortunately, the month-ending rally put enough space between the major averages and their 50-day moving averages that they all remain over 1% above the key technical level even after today's weakness. 

U.S. Treasuries began December on a lower note, sliding alongside other sovereign debt amid solidifying expectations for a rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19. The 2-year note yield settled up five basis points to 3.54%, and the 10-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 4.10%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• The November ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.2% for November (Briefing.com consensus: 49.0%), down from 48.7% in October. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the November figure, which is the ninth straight month below 50.0%, suggests manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace than the prior month.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the manufacturing sector resembled a sector in a state of stagflation in November, punctuated by a faster pace of contraction, rising prices, and weakening employment.
• The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI hit 52.2 in the final reading for November, down from 52.5 in October.

Tuesday:

The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.4%) captured modest gains as tech and mega-cap names traded higher, though action was choppy throughout the session and stocks finished well off of their morning highs. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.8%) provided solid leadership from the open, supported by strength across its mega-cap components. NVIDIA (NVDA 181.29, +1.37, +0.76%) saw its second consecutive day of strength, while Apple (AAPL 286.19, +3.09, +1.09%) and Microsoft (MSFT 490.00, +3.26, +0.67%) also captured nice gains. 

Meanwhile, Intel (INTC 43.47, +3.46, +8.65%) finished with the widest gain in the sector, contributing to a 1.8% advance in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. 

Gains in mega-cap and tech stocks were crucial to today's index-level advance. A late-morning slide in equities saw the technology sector's gain eroded to just 0.3%, which briefly sent the S&P 500 below its flatline before recovering nicely. 

Mega-cap strength also underpinned the gains in the communication services (+0.4%) sector and dictated the standing of the consumer discretionary sector (flat). Both sectors oscillated around their flatlines following swings in their mega-cap components. Meta Platforms (META 647.10, +6.23, +0.97%) was a standout, while Amazon (AMZN 234.42, +0.54, +0.23%) was particularly volatile, trading over 2.0% higher before finishing with just a modest gain. 

All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.5%) notched a solid gain, though the gap between the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%) and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.1%) wound up being much slimmer than it was when the major averages were at session highs. 

Meanwhile, the industrials sector (+0.9%) was more resilient to volatility today and ended up with the widest gain of the three S&P 500 sectors that finished in positive territory. Boeing (BA 205.41, +18.95, +10.16%) was the best-performing S&P 500 name today, capturing a double-digit gain after positive commentary from its investor presentation at a UBS conference this morning. The company expects increased deliveries for both its 737 and 787 models and expects low single-digit growth in free cash flow in FY26. 

The financials sector (-0.1%) traded higher for much of the session but slipped below its flatline just before the close. Robinhood Markets (HOOD 125.95, +2.71, +2.20%) and Coinbase Global (COIN 263.26, +3.42, +1.32%) both traded higher as Bitcoin recovered from yesterday's sell-off, reaching a peak above $92,000 this afternoon.

Losses in the five other retreating S&P 500 sectors were relatively modest, with the exception of the energy sector (-1.1%), which faced pressure amid a falling price of oil that saw crude oil futures settle today's session $0.71 lower (-1.2%) at $58.67 per barrel.

While not components of the S&P 500, MongoDB (MDB 401.99, +73.12, +22.23%) and Credo Technology Group (CRDO 188.44, +17.31, +10.12%) traded sharply higher after solid beat-and-raise earnings reports, which added to the positive sentiment across the technology sector and bodes well for other tech names set to report earnings this week. 

Though stocks finished well off of their session highs from this morning, the major averages were able to notch a modestly higher finish after stocks retreated to start the month yesterday. The information technology sector was back in the driver's seat today, and its ability to maintain a gain through to the close despite some intraday volatility was a positive sign given recent uneasiness in the sector amid valuation and AI expenditure concerns. 

U.S. Treasuries finished Tuesday with modest gains across the curve, halting their two-day slide from one-month highs. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.52%, and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.09%. 

The market did not receive any domestic data, but tomorrow will feature a full slate of data, including the November ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 20,000; prior 42,000) at 8:15 ET and November ISM Services (Briefing.com consensus 52.4%; prior 52.4%) at 10:00 ET.

Wednesday:

The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (+0.9%) steadily improved throughout the day, notching gains that now seat the major averages at or above their baselines for the week. 

Today's action marks the second consecutive higher finish for the major averages after Monday's cryptocurrency-fueled slide, though the gains came in an entirely different fashion. 

Yesterday's gains came on leadership from tech names and weaker breadth that saw just three S&P 500 names trade higher. Today, however, advancers outpaced decliners by a roughly 5-to-2 clip on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, and nine S&P 500 sectors finished higher. 

To add to the juxtaposition, the information technology sector (-0.4%) was one of very few weak spots in today's trade, though its substantial improvement throughout the session played a key role in the major averages finishing higher across the board. 

Microsoft (MSFT 477.73, -12.27, -2.50%) was at the center of what was arguably today's most widely discussed news item. Before the open, The Information reported the company lowered AI software sales quotas as customers resist newer products. A spokesperson for the company refuted the claim to CNBC, and The Information then changed its headline to reflect that the company is lowering AI sales growth targets, not sales quotas. 

The stock's retreat set a shaky early tone for mega-cap and tech stocks. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 179.59, -1.87, -1.03%), which inhabits both of those realms, traded lower, though relative strength across chipmaker names pushed the PHLX Semiconductor Index 1.8% higher. 

A 0.3% dip in the utilities sector (which has substantially underperformed this week) was the only other blemish on a day that was defined by broad-based strength. 

The energy sector (+1.8%) captured the widest gain as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.28 higher (+0.5%) at $58.95 per barrel, and natural gas settled today's session $0.16 higher (+3.3%) at $5.00 per MMBtu, a level not seen since December 2022. 

The financials sector (+1.3%) was another top mover, supported by solid gains across its major banking names. Robinhood Markets (HOOD 133.64, +7.69, +6.11%) and Coinbase Global (COIN 276.92, +13.66, +5.19%) were once again at the top of the sector's standings as Bitcoin continues to recover from Monday's slide, reclaiming the $93,000 mark. 

Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%) reflected the mixed disposition across the market's largest names that saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finish flat. Tesla (TSLA 446.74, +17.50, +4.08%) traded sharply higher after Politico reported that President Trump is considering issuing an executive order next year to accelerate growth and development across the robotics industry. Amazon (AMZN 232.43, -1.99, -0.85%), however, was a laggard.

Homebuilders such as D.R. Horton (DHI 165.00, +6.54, +4.13%) and Lennar (LEN 133.16, +3.43, +2.64%) contributed to the gains as the market's elevated expectations for a December rate cut continue to hold steady. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF finished 2.1% higher. 

Though not constituents of the consumer discretionary sector, American Eagle (AEO 23.97, +3.14, +15.07%) and Dollar Tree (DLTR 112.92, +3.94, +3.61%) turned in solid earnings reports, which boosted retailer names and sent the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF 1.4% higher. 

The market also received a full slate of economic data this morning. A surprise dip in the November ADP Employment Change Report (-32K; Briefing.com consensus: 20K) prompted some questions around the growth outlook, though the solid performances across cyclical sectors and the outperformance of the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.9%) suggest that the market remains fixated on the potential of a rate cut to keep the economy on a growth trajectory. 

Ultimately, today's move, and its stark contrast to yesterday's, highlights some back-and-forth action as the market awaits its next major catalyst in the form of next week's FOMC decision. While stocks have seen some choppiness, the major averages now sit at or above their unchanged levels for the week, an indication that, even with the day-to-day swings, underlying support remains strong as the market positions itself for next week's FOMC decision.

U.S. Treasuries extended their rebound from Tuesday, returning most tenors to their opening levels from Monday. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.49%, and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.06%.

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -1.4%; Prior 0.2%
• November ADP Employment Change -32K (Briefing.com consensus 20K); Prior was revised to 47K from 42K
• September Import Prices 0.0%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.3%
• September Import Prices ex-oil 0.2%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.4%
• September Export Prices 0.0%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.3%
• September Export Prices ex-ag. 0.0%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.3%
• September Industrial Production 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to -0.3% from 0.1%; September Capacity Utilization 75.9% (Briefing.com consensus 77.3%); Prior was revised to 75.9% from 77.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is the downshift in the capacity utilization rate, which implies there is slack in the industrial sector that should translate into reduced inflation pressure.
• November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Final 54.1; Prior 54.8
• November ISM Services 52.6% (Briefing.com consensus 52.4%); Prior 52.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that activity in the services sector remains in expansion mode, yet that expansion is somewhat tepid, evidenced by this low November reading that is 10 percentage points less than the 12-month average since February 2022, when it stood at 62.6%.

Thursday:

The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (-0.1%) spent the session in a tight range near their unchanged levels amid a lack of notable developments today. 

Tight breadth figures (decliners outpaced advancers by a roughly 7-to-6 margin on the NYSE while advancers held a roughly 3-to-2 advantage on the Nasdaq) and nearly even sector strength culminated in a sideways drift for the major averages today. 

The health care sector (-0.7%) finished tied for the widest loss today, highlighting the modesty of today's moves at both the sector and the index level. 

The consumer staples sector (-0.7%) also lagged despite Dollar General (DG 125.21, +15.32, +13.94%) finishing as the best-performing S&P 500 name after a strong beat-and-raise Q3 earnings report, while a 0.2% loss in the utilities sector rounds out a weak day for defensive sectors.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%) faced pressure in its homebuilder names, which saw the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (-2.1%) give back yesterday's gain, while Amazon (AMZN 229.11, -3.27, -1.41%) was a laggard across mega-cap stocks.

The mega-cap cohort saw some notable stock-specific moves, both higher and lower, which ultimately canceled each other out to a flattish finish for the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.1%).

Meta Platforms (META 661.53, +21.93, +3.43%) was a standout, trading higher after Bloomberg reported that the company is considering slashing its budget for its metaverse group by up to 30% next year. The potential budget cuts signal a strategic pivot, freeing up billions to reinvest in higher-ROI AI projects that are proving more effective at driving revenue and profits.

Despite Meta's advance, a loss in Alphabet (GOOG 318.39, -2.23, -0.70%) kept gains modest in the communication services sector (+0.4%), though it still finished near the top of today's underwhelming leaderboard.

The information technology sector (+0.4%) also managed a modest gain despite mixed performances across its mega-cap components. Apple (AAPL 280.70, -3.45, -1.21%) finished lower, while NVIDIA (NVDA 183.46, +3.87, +2.15%) notched a solid gain despite relative weakness across chipmakers.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.9%) hit session lows late in the afternoon after Reuters reported that bipartisan senators have introduced a bill that will block the Trump administration from removing chip export restrictions to China. Intel (INTC 40.50, -3.26, -7.45%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 name today. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Salesforce (CRM 247.65, +8.93, +3.74%) traded higher after topping earnings expectations and issuing upbeat guidance, while Sandisk (SNDK 213.31, +18.93, +9.74%) recaptured some of its losses from recent sessions. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) continued its run of outperformance this week as the market remains expectant that the Fed will deliver a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting. 

With that backdrop, the major averages are maintaining their modest week-to-date gains heading into Friday's session. Attention now turns to tomorrow's release of the September PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), though it's unlikely to sway sentiment in a meaningful way given that expectations for a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting are already almost fully priced in. However, the data could influence the expected policy path for early 2026, as the market largely anticipates a "hawkish cut" next week that would dampen expectations for an additional move in January.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Thursday, lifting yields back to their highest levels of the week. The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.53%, and the 10-year note yield settled up five basis points to 4.11%.

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Continuing Claims 1.939 mln; Prior was revised to 1.943 mln from 1.960 mln, Weekly Initial Claims 191K (Briefing.com consensus 220K); Prior was revised to 218K from 216K
  • The key takeaway from the report is initial claims dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, which is an encouraging sign about the health of a labor market at a time when visibility remains reduced due to some missing Employment Situation reports from the BLS.
• October Trade Balance DELAYED (Briefing.com consensus -$61.3 bln); Prior -$59.6 bln
• September Factory Orders 0.2%; Prior was revised to 1.3% from 1.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that orders increased again in September despite a big jump in August with new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business spending, jumping 0.9% for the second month in a row.

Friday:

The stock market had another somewhat subdued session today, with the S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (+0.2%) keeping with the recent trend of modest growth and adding to their week-to-date gains.

Stocks were little changed following the delayed release of the Personal Income/Outlays report for September, which showed in-line Personal Income growth (0.4%) while Personal Spending growth (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) was below expectations. September PCE Price growth (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) was in-line, and core PCE Price growth (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) was slightly cooler than expected, reducing the year-over-year growth rate to 2.8% from 2.9% in August, though this remains well above the Fed's 2.0% target.

While this was the last inflation reading before next week's FOMC decision, it had little effect on the major averages, largely because it had no effect on the market's rate-cut expectations. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns an 87.2% probability to a December rate cut, down from 88.2% yesterday, and a 25.1% probability to an additional cut in January, down from 25.4% yesterday. 

In corporate news, the headline that Netflix (NFLX 100.24, -2.98, -2.89%) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 26.06, +1.52, +6.19%) in a cash and stock transaction worth $72 billion was perhaps the most widely discussed happening today. Paramount Skydance (PSKY 13.36, -1.46, -9.82%) , which also submitted a bid for WBD traded sharply lower, with CNBC reporting that the company is considering taking a direct bid to WBD's shareholders. 

Alongside all of the acquisition buzz, Alphabet (GOOG 322.09, +3.70, +1.16%) and Meta Platforms (META 673.42, +11.89, +1.80%) quietly mounted some of the best performances across mega-cap names, which helped the communication services sector (+1.0%) finish as the top-performing S&P 500 sector. 

Despite some weakness in its own largest components, NVIDIA (NVDA 182.41, -0.97, -0.53%) and Apple (AAPL 278.78, -1.92, -0.68%), the information technology sector (+0.5%) also finished with a solid gain as a majority of its components traded higher. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.4%) rounded out the three S&P 500 sectors that finished higher, with Ulta Beauty (ULTA 601.50, +67.55, +12.65%) capturing the widest gain across S&P 500 names after a beat-and-raise Q3 earnings report. 

The financials and real estate sectors finished flat, while six sectors finished lower. Losses were relatively modest, with the exception of the utilities sector (-1.0%), which extended its week-to-date losses to 4.5%, the widest across S&P 500 sectors. 

The health care (-0.4%) and consumer staples (-0.3%) sectors were also among the laggards as defensive sectors faced some pressure this week. 

Overall, the major averages continued to drift modestly higher, with buyers showing little urgency ahead of next week's FOMC decision. With expectations for policy largely unchanged and catalysts scarce, stocks appear content to meander within recent ranges as the market waits for clearer signals from the Fed.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Friday, sending the 30-year note yield to its highest level since early September, while yields on 5s and 10s settled just below their November highs. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.56% (+7 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.14% (+12 basis points this week).

Reviewing today's data:

• September Personal Income 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.4%, September Personal Spending 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.6%, September PCE Prices 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%, September PCE Prices - Core 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed a very sticky inflation component that remains well above the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. That likely won't prevent the Fed from cutting rates next week, but it will likely factor into a "hawkish cut," as the Fed implies it will be inclined to wait longer for the next rate cut.
• October Factory Orders DELAYED (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%)
• December Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 53.3 (Briefing.com consensus 52.0); Prior 51.0
  • The key takeaway from the report is its note that consumers' overall view can still be thought of as broadly somber, notwithstanding the month-over-month increase, due to the burden of high prices.
• Consumer credit increased by $9.2 billion in October (Briefing.com consensus: $9.8 billion) following a downwardly revised $11.0 billion increase (from $13.0 billion) in September.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the expansion in consumer credit in October was paced by revolving credit, which could be construed as a sign of consumers leaning more on credit cards to fund spending needs due to disposable income being pinched by higher prices (and missing paychecks for some during the government shutdown).