Weekly Wrap

The stock market navigated a volatile holiday-shortened week, overcoming a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve and several sharp reversals across technology stocks to finish higher. The S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.4%), and DJIA (+0.7%) all advanced, as easing geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in oil prices helped offset concerns about a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

The week's most significant development came on Wednesday, when the June FOMC meeting delivered a more hawkish tone than many investors expected. While the Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged, updated economic projections showed inflation remaining persistently above target and pushed out expectations for future policy easing. The median path now implies no rate cuts in 2026, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm was widely interpreted as reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy stance. Stocks sold off sharply following the announcement, but the weakness proved short-lived as investors stepped back into many of the market's favored areas.

Semiconductor stocks remained the market's primary leadership group, though the path higher was far from smooth. The PHLX Semiconductor Index surged 7.3% for the week despite suffering a sharp selloff on Tuesday that erased Monday's rally. Investors repeatedly bought those pullbacks, with Thursday's rebound driven by strength in Intel, Micron, and other memory names. The group's resilience helped propel the information technology sector (+3.1%) to the top of the leaderboard and pushed the Nasdaq Composite to a decisive weekly outperformance.

Investors also continued to focus on SpaceX, which remained one of the market's most actively traded names following last week's IPO. Shares experienced their first meaningful bout of profit-taking following the FOMC meeting but still finished the week up 14.9%, highlighting continued enthusiasm for high-growth and AI-related themes.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments provided an increasingly supportive backdrop. Confidence grew throughout the week that a framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran would ultimately hold, culminating in the signing of a 60-day memorandum of understanding. Crude oil prices tumbled roughly 11% during the week, easing inflation concerns and supporting economically sensitive groups ranging from airlines and homebuilders to industrial and consumer discretionary names. The energy sector (-6.6%) finished as the week's weakest performer as a result.

Beneath the surface, participation improved as investors looked beyond mega-cap technology stocks. The industrials sector (+2.6%) and the Russell 2000 (+1.2%) outperformed, while homebuilders rallied alongside falling rates and energy prices. Defensive groups moved in the opposite direction, with health care (-3.0%), consumer staples (-2.9%), and real estate (-3.5%) sectors finishing near the bottom of the sector leaderboard.

In the end, the market absorbed a hawkish Fed meeting surprisingly well. Falling oil prices, improving breadth, and persistent semiconductor leadership were enough to overcome concerns about delayed rate cuts, allowing the major averages to finish another week in positive territory.

• Nasdaq Composite: +2.4% week-to-date
• Russell 2000: +1.2% week-to-date
• S&P 500: +0.9% week-to-date
• DJIA: +0.7% week-to-date
• S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.1% week-to-date

Monday:

The stock market started a holiday-abbreviated week on a sharply higher note as a pullback in oil prices culminated in relatively broad gains and strong leadership from mega-cap and tech names. The S&P 500 (+1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+3.1%), and DJIA (+0.9%) traded in a narrow range after the initial oil-driven opening gains, with the DJIA securing fresh all-time high levels.

Yesterday's announcement from President Trump that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace agreement, which will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting Iran's naval blockade, provided the spark for a constructive session today. The deal is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland, and while questions remain around some of the tougher issues, including Iran's nuclear program, the market was satisfied by the progress and the subsequent slide in oil prices. Crude oil futures settled the session $3.98 lower (-4.7%) at $80.90 per barrel.

Importantly, mega-cap and tech stocks took part in the rally after some choppiness across the group last week. The information technology sector (+3.4%) finished with the widest gain, supported by a 5.5% advance across components of the PHLX Semiconductor Index. NVIDIA (NVDA 212.45, +7.26, +3.54%) reclaimed its 50-day moving average (207.60), while memory names Western Digital (WDC 653.53, +90.60, +16.10%), Micron (MU 1087.99, +106.38, +10.84%), and Seagate Tech (STX 1018.80, +87.76, +9.43%) were among the top-performing S&P 500 names.

Meta Platforms (META 593.48, +26.50, +4.67%) and Amazon (AMZN 246.10, +7.55, +3.16%) were among the other mega-cap standouts, which helped the communication services (+2.4%) and consumer discretionary (+1.9%) sectors also finish near the top of the leaderboard. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 2.8% higher.

Though not yet a component of the S&P 500, SpaceX (SPCX 192.50, +31.55, +19.60%) traded sharply higher again in its second trading day, putting its total gain at roughly 40% above its IPO price.

Outside of the mega-cap realm, oil- and rate-sensitive stocks contributed to today's rally amid the pullback in crude prices. DoorDash (DASH 168.09, +17.51, +11.63%) was an S&P 500 standout, while a host of cruise lines and other travel-related names also contributed to the strength in the consumer discretionary sector.

The industrials sector (+1.4%) was another top mover, bolstered by solid performances across airline names and electrical product names, which have become increasingly linked to semiconductor performance.

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-3.6%) faced a sharp retreat amid the oil pullback, while the more defensive-oriented real estate (-0.9%), health care (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.5%) sectors also underperformed as growth stocks surged today.

Altogether, it was a relatively quiet session, as a lack of corporate news kept the major averages trading near their opening highs for most of the day. The retreat in oil prices improved sentiment across the market and helped alleviate some inflation and growth concerns, while mega-cap and technology stocks regained their footing after a volatile previous week

U.S. Treasuries started the week on a positive note, though some intraday backtracking left the complex with only a portion of its initial gains. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.07%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.47%.

Reviewing today's data:

• June Empire State Manufacturing 5.7 (Briefing.com consensus 12.5); Prior 19.6
• May Industrial Production 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.9% from 0.7%, May Capacity Utilization 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.2%); Prior 76.1%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing output moved sideways in May, reflecting a cooling down after some solid activity in April.
• June NAHB Housing Market 35 (Briefing.com consensus 37); Prior 37

Tuesday:

Stocks had a relatively sleepy session on the heels of Monday's rally, with the DJIA (+0.6%) furthering its push into record territory as oil prices continued to fall, while the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%) faced pressure amid a pullback across tech names.

The information technology sector (-2.3%) finished with the widest loss by a considerable margin after posting a 3.4% gain in the previous session. Semiconductor stocks in particular faced some profit-taking, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-5.7%) giving back all of yesterday's gains as stocks such as Lumentum (LITE 875.36, -81.88, -8.55%) and Monolithic Power (MPWR 1496.52, -155.77, -9.43%) were among the worst-performing S&P 500 components.

NVIDIA (NVDA 207.42, -5.03, -2.37%) was a "magnificent seven" laggard amid a mostly lower showing across the group, helping drive the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 1.1% lower.

For much of the session, it appeared that relative weakness across the mega-cap cohort would have little effect on SpaceX (SPCX 202.09, +9.59, +4.98%). After surrendering most of an early advance during the afternoon, the stock found renewed buying interest into the close and extended its powerful post-IPO run.

As tech charted a lower course, the broader market saw some rotational interest that helped soften the tech-inflicted blow on the major averages. Strength in the broader market was once again supported by a retreat in oil prices, as investors remained optimistic that Friday's planned signing of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement will result in a lasting resolution and help keep energy prices contained. Crude oil futures settled today's session $4.84 lower (-6.0%) at $76.06 per barrel, and the energy sector (-0.3%) was the only other S&P 500 sector to finish with a loss wider than 0.1%.

Meanwhile, seven S&P 500 sectors posted gains, led by the financials sector (+1.5%) as falling oil prices eased growth concerns and supported bank stocks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 331.14, +11.74, +3.68%) was the best-performing Dow component after Bloomberg reported that L3Harris (LHX 310.45, +6.28, +2.06%) selected JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley (MS 220.83, +2.85, +1.31%) to lead a potential $2 billion IPO of its missile unit, Axyv.

Other cyclical sectors were also among today's outperformers. The majority of stocks in the industrials sector (+0.7%) traded higher, while the materials sector (+0.5%) was supported by another solid showing from construction material names as Treasury yields continued to move lower.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) finished lower.

Corporate news flow was on the lighter side again today, though there were a few notable stock-specific moves. Moderna (MRNA 55.39, +3.26, +6.25%) surged in reaction to upbeat pipeline and commercialization updates, while CoreWeave (CRWV 117.03, +10.32, +9.67%) finished with an even wider gain after the company said it delivered the fastest DeepSeek-V3 671B training performance in the benchmark.

Altogether, today's session reflected a pause in the recent technology-led advance rather than a meaningful deterioration in sentiment. Profit-taking across semiconductor and mega-cap names weighed on the major averages, but continued weakness in oil prices helped support rotation into other areas of the market and kept the broader tone constructive.

Attention now turns to tomorrow's FOMC meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, though investors will be closely monitoring the first meeting under Fed Chair Warsh for clues about the policy outlook and how the Committee views the recent improvement in inflation and energy prices.

U.S. Treasuries continued their upbeat start to the week, sending the 30-year yield to its lowest close since late April while yields on the 5 and 10 year note yields recorded their lowest settlements since mid-May as the market remained optimistic that geopolitical tensions with Iran will become a distant memory soon. The Treasury complex climbed past its early highs in mid-morning action, staying near their best levels after the U.S. Treasury sold $22 billion in 20-year bonds to strong demand. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.05%, and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.43%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• May Housing Starts 1.177 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.440 mln); Prior was revised to 1.392 mln from 1.465 mln, May Building Permits 1.413 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.410 mln); Prior was revised to 1.423 mln from 1.442 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in starts was concentrated on the multi-unit side, as starts there were down 40.2% month-over-month, yet it would be remiss not to mention that single-unit starts in the South—the largest homebuilding region—were down 5.2% month-over-month.
• May Import Prices 1.9%; Prior was revised to 2.0% from 1.9%
• May Import Prices ex-oil 0.8%; Prior was revised to 0.6% from 0.8%
• May Export Prices 1.3%; Prior was revised to 3.5% from 3.3%
• May Export Prices ex-ag. 1.2%; Prior was revised to 3.7% from 3.4%

Wednesday:

After spending the first half of the session drifting sideways, stocks turned lower following the June FOMC meeting, which left the federal funds target range unchanged but was interpreted as a more hawkish-than-expected shift in tone during Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm. Weakness was broad, and the S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%), and DJIA (-1.0%) finished firmly lower, despite the DJIA notching a record intraday high earlier in the session.

The policy statement itself was notably stripped down, with the Committee voting 12-0 to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% and closing with an unambiguous commitment that it "will deliver price stability." The lack of forward guidance, combined with the removal of several longer-standing pieces of language, reinforced the impression of a procedural reset under Fed Chair Warsh.

That tone shift was further amplified in the updated Summary of Economic Projections, which showed inflation running persistently above target and pushed out expectations for policy easing. The median path now implies no rate cuts in 2026, alongside a meaningful upward revision to both headline and core PCE inflation forecasts. Taken together, the statement and projections were read as signaling a higher-for-longer policy stance, prompting a repricing in rates and contributing to the broader risk-off move in equities.

The afternoon sell-off left all eleven S&P 500 sectors in negative territory, though the session's earlier trends were still visible at the sector level. The industrials (-0.1%) and financials (-0.5%) sectors closed with the narrowest losses after their earlier gains pushed the DJIA to a new all-time high.

Several major banking components of the Dow, including Goldman Sachs (GS 1099.14, +8.47, +0.78%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 333.46, +2.32, +0.70%), escaped with gains, while Robinhood Markets (HOOD 105.20, +8.49, +8.78%) was one of the top-performing S&P 500 names after announcing it would eliminate 10% of its workforce against a backdrop of positive analyst commentary.

Electrical product names such as GE Vernova (GEV 1048.86, +66.51, +6.77%) and Vertiv (VRT 317.58, +17.98, +6.00%) contributed to the relative outperformance of the industrials sector, while semiconductor stocks also rebounded from yesterday's weakness.

While the afternoon selling pressure eroded the gain of the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.4%), it still finished firmly higher as investors bought into yesterday's weakness across semiconductor names.

That helped limit losses in the top-weighted information technology sector (-0.6%), which was weighted down by another weaker showing from the Magnificent Seven cohort today. Microsoft (MSFT 378.91, -14.92, -3.79%) was a laggard in the technology sector, while Meta Platforms (META 567.58, -32.63, -5.44%) weighed on the communication services sector (-3.0%), and Amazon (AMZN 237.50, -8.50, -3.46%) contributed to weakness in the consumer discretionary sector (-2.7%).

All seven Magnificent Seven stocks finished lower, and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 1.4% lower. In other mega-cap news, SpaceX (SPCX 192.21, -9.59, -4.75%) finished lower for the first time after three consecutive sessions of sharp gains going back to its debut on Friday.

Elsewhere in the consumer discretionary sector, rate-sensitive names such as Carvana (CVNA 62.84, -7.20, -10.28%) and an assortment of homebuilder stocks lagged.

The real estate sector (-2.5%), which is also viewed as rate sensitive, underperformed as well.

Outside the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.7%) was a relative outperformer, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.2%) finished with a loss similar to those across the major averages.

Ultimately, the afternoon sell-off overshadowed what had been another constructive session for cyclical sectors, which benefited earlier in the day from stable oil prices as the market remains confident the proposed peace deal between the U.S. and Iran will be signed on Friday, even with President Trump levying threatening renewed military action if a deal is not struck. Instead, investors focused on the prospect of a higher-for-longer policy environment, with a more hawkish outlook and a lack of forward guidance diminishing the market's odds for a rate cut in 2026.

U.S. Treasuries had a mixed outing on Wednesday after sideways morning trade gave way to some post-FOMC volatility that produced losses in 10s and shorter tenors while the long bond outperformed. The 2-year note yield settled up 11 basis points to 4.16%, and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.46%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -3.8%; Prior 10.8%
• May Retail Sales 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%, May Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 0.7%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it shows real demand. The data are not adjusted for price changes, and retail sales activity in May outpaced the rate of inflation (+0.5%) in May. Moreover, excluding gasoline station sales (+3.4%), retail sales were still up 0.7%.
• April Business Inventories 0.5%; Prior was revised to 1.0% from 1.5%
• May Pending Home Sales 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 1.4%

Thursday:

The stock market finished a bumpy week on a higher note, with exceptional tech leadership and stable oil prices helping the S&P 500 (+1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.9%), and DJIA (+0.1%) rebound from yesterday's FOMC-driven selloff and lock in weekly gains.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+2.7%) closed with the widest gain, buoyed by a strong showing from its semiconductor components. Intel (INTC 133.99, +12.89, +10.64%) locked in a double-digit gain after President Trump confirmed the company will partner with Apple (AAPL 298.01, +2.06, +0.70%) to design and manufacture Apple's chips in the U.S.

Micron (MU 1133.99, +90.80, +8.70%) surged alongside other memory names following a flurry of price target increases, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 6.4% higher, pushing its year-to-date gain past 100%.

Elsewhere in the technology sector, Accenture (ACN 130.54, -25.46, -16.32%) finished as the S&P 500's worst performer after issuing disappointing forward guidance with its earnings release, weighing on other IT services names such as Cognizant Tech (CTSH 43.70, -5.12, -10.49%) and IBM (IBM 249.10, -13.25, -5.05%).

While semiconductor names were a point of relative strength amid yesterday's FOMC-driven retreat, today's action featured considerably stronger performances from mega-cap names outside the information technology sector. Amazon (AMZN 244.39, +6.89, +2.90%) posted a nice gain after Bloomberg reported the company is considering selling its Trainium AI chips to external data centers in a push to challenge NVIDIA's (NVDA 210.69, +6.04, +2.95%) dominance, while Alphabet (GOOG 367.46, +5.36, +1.48%) and Meta Platforms (META 577.22, +9.64, +1.70%) rebounded from sharply lower finishes yesterday.

The consumer discretionary (+1.8%) and communication services (+1.1%) sectors both outperformed after closing with the widest losses in yesterday's session, and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 1.8% higher.

The consumer discretionary sector was also a beneficiary of today's macro and geopolitical developments. President Trump signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict in Iran, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reduce risks to global energy supplies. Oil prices moved sharply lower before paring most of their losses to finish little changed, though crude still ended the week only about $10 per barrel above levels seen before the start of the U.S. military campaign against Iran.

Oil- and rate-sensitive stocks outperformed, with Carvana (CVNA 66.55, +3.69, +5.87%) and DoorDash (DASH 173.46, +7.80, +4.71%) finishing as the consumer discretionary sector's top performers.

Homebuilders such as PulteGroup (PHM 126.96, +5.08, +4.17%) and Lennar (LEN 89.73, +3.25, +3.76%) also posted solid gains, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 3.6% higher.

Similarly, building and construction names in the industrials sector (+0.7%) helped the sector notch a higher finish, with electrical names rallying alongside semiconductors.

The rate-sensitive utilities sector (+0.7%) rounds out the five S&P 500 sectors that finished higher, despite a weaker showing from other defensive-oriented sectors such as health care (-0.9%) and consumer staples (-0.6%). Kroger (KR 56.61, -5.21, -8.43%) was a laggard after a slight EPS miss and underwhelming forward guidance.

Unsurprisingly, the energy sector (-1.7%) finished with the widest loss amid the MOA signing between the U.S. and Iran, while other cyclical sectors, such as the financials (-0.9%) and materials (-0.4%) sectors, also lagged.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+2.1%) outperformed amid the improving macro backdrop, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.1%) also captured a nice gain.

Overall, today's session represented a solid rebound from yesterday's FOMC-driven weakness, as investors appeared willing to look past the Fed's more hawkish tone and continue buying into areas of recent strength. Semiconductor stocks once again provided the market's primary leadership, while easing geopolitical tensions and stable oil prices helped broaden participation and support a constructive finish to the week.

As a reminder, the market will be closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday.

U.S. Treasuries finished the holiday-shortened week in mixed fashion, sending the 30-year yield note yield to a two-month low (4.90%) while the 2-year yield settled at its highest level since February 2025.

The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.18% (+9 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.45% (-6 basis points this week).

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 226K (Briefing.com consensus 226K); Prior was revised to 230K from 229K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.810 mln; Prior was revised to 1.786 mln from 1.795 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is the steady level of initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—which suggests the continuation of low firing activity overall.
• June Philadelphia Fed Index 10.3 (Briefing.com consensus 10.0); Prior -0.4
• May Leading Economic Index 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.1%

Friday: 

Market closed for the Juneteenth holiday.