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Target (TGT) is trading higher despite a down day in the broader market after reporting Q4 (Jan) results this morning. The retail giant delivered a sizable EPS beat, its largest of the past six quarters. Revenue declined 1.5% yr/yr to $30.45 bln, in-line with expectations, marking its fifth consecutive yr/yr decline. Q1 (Apr) EPS guidance came in below expectations, although the mid-point of FY27 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.50-8.50 was well above analyst forecasts. The company also guided to a "small increase" in FY27 comps following a FY26 comp decline of -2.6%, which investors appear to be viewing as a modest positive.
- Adjusted EPS delivered a significant upside surprise, the largest in six quarters, helping offset another modest top-line decline.
- Same-store comps declined -2.5% in Q4 (in-store -3.9%; digital +1.9%), roughly in-line with Q3 comps of -2.7% (in-store -3.8%; digital +2.4%). Food & Beverage, Beauty, and Toys posted net sales growth in Q4, with stronger trends in Essentials and Home relative to Q3, while Apparel, Hardlines, and Home Furnishings declined. Sales and traffic trends accelerated in the final two months of the quarter, which was good to see.
- Adjusted operating margin improved slightly to 4.8% from 4.7% a year ago, driven by lower inventory shrink, reduced supply chain and digital fulfillment costs, and growth in advertising revenue.
- The company did not repurchase shares in Q4 despite having $8.3 bln remaining under its authorization, likely reflecting a shift in capital allocation toward higher cap-ex spending.
- Importantly, Michael Fiddelke assumed the CEO role on February 1 after being promoted from COO. Capital investment and operational improvement now seem to be key priorities.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Investors appear pleased with the strong EPS upside and better-than-feared full-year guidance. Additionally, the outlook for comps to return to growth in FY27, even if modestly, is being viewed constructively. Given Walmart's (WMT) recent downside EPS guidance for Q1 and the full year, Target's outlook compares favorably and seems to be contributing to today's relative strength.
Target delivered an encouraging quarter highlighted by a sizeable EPS beat and stable margins despite ongoing top-line pressure. While revenue remains in a multi-quarter decline and near-term guidance was mixed, the full-year EPS outlook and expectation for comps to turn positive in FY27 offer a measure of confidence in the turnaround trajectory. We think investors are increasingly focused on margin stability, capital discipline, and the potential benefits from stepped-up cap-ex under new CEO Michael Fiddelke. Relative to tempered expectations and cautious peer commentary, this report likely clears a low bar and supports the stock's positive reaction.