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Eli Lilly (LLY) delivered a powerhouse performance for 4Q25, sending the stock trading sharply higher as the company continues to dominate the high-demand obesity and diabetes treatment markets. While its primary competitor, Novo Nordisk (NVO), issued a cautious outlook yesterday, LLY crushed 4Q25 estimates and provided upside FY26 guidance, reinforcing its position as a global leader in cardiometabolic health.

• LLY reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $7.54, exceeding the FactSet consensus by $0.63, while revenue surged 43% to $19.3 bln, beating estimates by $1.35 bln.
• Results were fueled by Mounjaro, which grew 110% to $7.4 bln, and Zepbound, which more than doubled its US revenue and captured a 70% share of new prescriptions in the branded obesity market.
• Beyond obesity, Kisunla (Alzheimer's) reached $109 mln in revenue, becoming the US market leader with over 50% share of prescriptions, while immunology drugs Omvoh (+55%) and Jaypirca (+30%) also posted double-digit growth.
• The company issued robust FY26 guidance, forecasting revenue of $80.0–$83.0 bln and non-GAAP EPS of $33.50–$35.00. This outlook implies roughly 25% revenue growth, driven by massive volume increases from its key incretin products and the introduction of new manufacturing capacity.
• LLY’s beat-and-raise performance contrasts sharply with NVO’s disappointing 2026 guidance of -5% to -13% sales growth. While NVO faces US pricing pressure and expiring drug exclusivity, LLY is leveraging a proactive $55 bln manufacturing build-out that has already scaled production to 1.8 times the previous year’s incretin doses.
• The company's new oral weight-loss pill, Orforglipron, is on track for a US launch in 2Q26, which is expected to significantly expand the addressable market by offering a convenient non-injectable option.
• To support this oral medication pipeline, LLY is constructing a new $3 bln manufacturing facility in the Netherlands, part of a broader strategy to solidify its European supply chain and boost production for patients worldwide.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

LLY’s Q4 results signal a company that has successfully decoupled itself from the headwinds facing its peers. The divergence from NVO is the narrative of the quarter. Where NVO sees "unprecedented pricing pressure," LLLY sees a "volume response" enabled by its massive internal investments in supply chain resilience. By committing $55 bln to manufacturing since 2020, LLY has effectively engineered its own growth trajectory, allowing it to meet overwhelming demand that competitors simply cannot. The upcoming Q2 launch of Orforglipron is a potential game-changer, as it targets the broader mid-single digit market penetration of eligible patients who may prefer a pill over an injector. With new Medicare/Medicaid access agreements coming online in July 2026, LLY is betting that its scale and diversified portfolio - from Alzheimer's to immunology - will maintain its valuation premium even as legacy products like Trulicity begin to plateau.