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Dutch Bros (BROS) perked up after reporting an impressive Q4 earnings beat last night although shares have pulled back. The coffee chain beat handily on EPS, bouncing back nicely from a modest Q3 beat. Revenue jumped 29.4% yr/yr to $443.6 mln, well ahead of expectations and marking its largest upside in quite some time. Revenue has more than doubled since the end of 2022.

• Q4 revenue increased 29.4% yr/yr to $443.6 mln, representing its strongest upside surprise in several quarters.
• Systemwide same shop sales increased +7.7%, driven by standout transaction growth of +5.4%, while company-operated same shop sales climbed +9.7%. These comps accelerated from Q3's +5.7% and +7.4%, respectively.
• The new food program is beginning to contribute meaningfully to comps.
• FY26 systemwide comp guidance of +3-5% is a bit lower, but BROS tends to be a bit conservative as the company laps a tough FY25 comp of +5.6%. Q1 systemwide comps are guided to +4-6%, supported by strong January trends.
• FY26 revenue guidance was slightly below analyst expectations, and elevated coffee costs are expected to continue impacting results into 2026.
• Despite commodity headwinds, FY25 company-operated contribution margin was approximately 29%, with management reiterating confidence in achieving a long-term 30% contribution margin as coffee costs normalize.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Dutch Bros delivered a decisive Q4 beat that should help ease concerns about consumer trade-down risk and margin pressure from elevated coffee costs. The sharp acceleration in same shop sales, particularly transaction growth, suggests the brand continues to resonate with customers even in a tighter spending environment. While FY26 revenue guidance was a bit underwhelming and commodity headwinds remain a near-term overhang, investors appear focused on the improving comp trajectory and strong start to Q1. If coffee costs moderate as expected and the food rollout continues to lift ticket and traffic, BROS looks positioned to sustain above-peer growth, though valuation will likely remain sensitive to any slowdown in transaction momentum.