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Mobileye Global (MBLY) delivered a Q4 revenue performance that handily exceeded analyst expectations, yet the stock is selling off sharply following the earnings release. While Q4 adjusted earnings were generally in-line with forecasts, the company issued FY26 revenue guidance of $1.90 to $1.98 bln, which fell short of the FactSet consensus estimate, prompting the sharp decline for the stock.

• Q4 revenue exceeded the high end of guidance, driven by higher-than-expected SuperVision volumes and a demand trend that ended the year stronger than anticipated.
• For FY26, MBLY expects revenue to grow between 0% and 5%, representing a cautious outlook compared to the 15% growth achieved in 2025.
• Total EyeQ volume for 2026 is projected at approximately 37 mln units, which includes 10 mln units in Q1 due to customer inventory restocking, followed by a reversion to a trend of roughly 9 mln units per quarter.
• Average System Price (ASP) is facing a yr/yr headwind of approximately $0.80, primarily driven by a "bridge" dual-chip EyeQ4 program where the second chip is lower priced, as well as modest vehicle mix shifts.
• Adjusted gross margin is expected to decline in 2026, weighed down by the dual-chip program and persistent EyeQ5-related costs that are expected to linger through the year before declining in 2027.
• Operating expenses are projected to grow 10% in 2026 to $1.1 bln, fueled by the acquisition of Mentee Robotics, FX headwinds from the appreciation of the Israeli shekel, and investments in advanced product infrastructure.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

MBLY’s Q4 report presents a classic case of strong quarterly execution being eclipsed by a disappointing forward-looking guide. The revenue beat in Q4 was impressive, but the market is fixated on the tepid 0–5% revenue growth projected for 2026. With OpEx rising due to the Mentee acquisition and currency pressures, MBLy finds itself in a "show-me" period where it must prove it can scale advanced products like SuperVision and Chauffeur to offset the slowing growth in its core ADAS business.