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Mosaic (MOS) provided a cautious update for 4Q25, warning that North American fertilizer demand fell significantly below seasonal norms. While the company faced a challenging environment late in the year due to economic and weather-related headwinds, it maintains a constructive outlook for 2026, driven by an expected recovery in nutrient replenishment and global supply constraints.

• North American phosphate market shipments are estimated to have declined approximately 20% yr/yr in Q4.
• Preliminary Q4 sales volumes reached approximately 1.3 mln tonnes for phosphates and 2.2 mln tonnes for potash.
• In Brazil, full-year sales volumes were approximately 9 mln tonnes, finishing flat compared to the prior year as the market deteriorated further in Q4.
• China has announced broader and longer-duration phosphate export restrictions that are expected to remain in place through at least 1H26.
• MOS adjusted its phosphate production plan and product mix in response to weak demand, redirecting inventory to stronger markets to maintain consistent production levels.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

MOS’s warning highlights a "perfect storm" of headwinds. North American demand stalled due to pressured grower economics and an early winter that shut the application window prematurely. Phosphate was specifically hindered by lower affordability relative to potash. In Brazil, intensifying credit constraints and a surge of low-analysis Chinese imports weighed heavily on performance. However, the 2026 outlook remains constructive. Management anticipates a rebound as growers replenish soil nutrients following 2025's strong yields, bolstered by government support payments. Furthermore, China’s extended phosphate export restrictions are expected to tighten global supply and improve pricing dynamics. While the Q4 inventory build has pressured near-term cash flow, the potential for record-level global shipments in 2026 suggests MOS is navigating a cyclical trough.