Story Stocks®
- NVDA’s RTX6000D chip, designed to meet U.S. export rules, has seen limited demand in China despite localization efforts.
- CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment, noting NVDA “can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be,” underscoring the company’s limited options amid rising geopolitical strain.
- China made up 13% of revenue in FY25, falling to 9% in 1H26. No H20 chip sales were recorded in Q2, and none are expected in Q3. The impact is notable but manageable.
- NVDA’s AI momentum remains strong globally. Data Center revenue rose 56% yr/yr in 2Q26, with Blackwell platform sales up 17% sequentially.
Key catalysts for Blackwell growth include:
- Expanding demand from hyperscalers building next-gen AI training clusters.
- Increasing adoption by sovereign AI initiatives and large enterprises globally.
- Superior performance-per-watt and total cost of ownership metrics versus prior-generation chips.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While the China news is clearly a headline risk and could limit NVDA’s near-term TAM, the broader picture remains resilient. The demand backdrop for AI infrastructure -- driven by training LLMs, enterprise AI adoption, and sovereign buildouts -- is still robust. That said, the declining China contribution, from 13% to 9%, and lack of visibility into future regulatory actions present a persistent overhang. Blackwell’s ramp and enterprise penetration are doing the heavy lifting for now, but longer-term, NVDA’s diversification beyond U.S. and hyperscaler customers will be critical to sustaining its premium valuation.
