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Air India Flight AI-171, a Boeing (BA) 787-8 Dreamliner en route from Ahmedabad, India, to London Gatwick, crashed shortly after takeoff, killing all 242 passengers and crew and causing additional casualties on the ground in the Meghani Nagar residential area. This tragic event, the first fatal crash involving a Boeing 787 since its commercial debut in 2011, has triggered significant market repercussions, with BA’s shares plunging and GE Aerospace (GE), the manufacturer of the aircraft’s GEnx engines, seeing a drop as well.

While the cause of the crash remains under investigation by India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), with flight data recorders recovered and expert speculation pointing to a potential loss of thrust or lift, definitive answers are likely weeks away, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty as BA faces renewed scrutiny.

• BA's history of safety and quality control challenges has been thrust back into the spotlight with this disaster. The company has been haunted by the 2018 Lion Air Flight 610 and 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashes, both involving the 737-MAX, which killed 346 people and led to a global grounding of the model for nearly two years. Additional incidents, such as the January 2024 Alaska Airlines 737-MAX 9 door plug blowout and the December 2024 Jeju Air 737-800 crash in South Korea, further eroded confidence.
• However, BA appeared to be regaining its footing under new CEO Kelly Ortberg, with key developments including a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice on June 4 to avoid criminal prosecution over the 737-MAX crashes (which is facing pushback from crash victims who are looking for more accountability), an FAA-approved action plan to address quality control lapses, and enhanced production discipline that bolstered investor sentiment.4
• Prior to the crash, BA’s stock was trading near 52-week highs, buoyed by a robust 1Q25 earnings report on April 23, 2025, which showcased a 75% revenue surge in the Commercial Airplanes segment, reflecting strong demand and operational recovery. Production of both the 737 and 787 programs has returned to healthier levels with BA delivering approximately 350 commercial aircraft in 2024, and the company has secured significant orders, such as Qatar Airways’ commitment for up to 210 jets, including 130 787 Dreamliners. Additionally, China’s recent decision to lift its ban on Boeing aircraft, with deliveries set to resume in July 2025, provided a critical catalyst, opening access to a key growth market.
• The Air India crash, however, threatens to derail this progress, particularly as it marks the first fatal incident involving the 787 Dreamliner, a cornerstone of BA’s widebody portfolio. This year, BA on pace to deliver about 60-70 Dreamliners per year at an average list price of $250-$300 mln per aircraft (though discounts are common). 
• The 787 program, with approximately 1,190 aircraft in service globally, is critical to BA’s financial health, serving long-haul routes for major carriers like Air India, which operates nearly three dozen 787s. A temporary suspension of the 787 program, should regulators deem it necessary, could disrupt deliveries, delay billions in near-term revenue, and exacerbate BA’s $36+ bln in cumulative losses since 2019. Moreover, persistent quality concerns, including prior whistleblower allegations of improper fuselage fastening and uncompleted inspections, could intensify regulatory and public scrutiny, potentially impacting order flow and customer confidence.

Accurately assessing the full financial and reputational impact of the Air India disaster on BA is challenging, as the investigation will likely take weeks or months to pinpoint the cause, whether mechanical, human error, or external factors like a bird strike. Nevertheless, this tragedy represents another significant blow to BA’s reputation as it competes fiercely with Airbus (EADSY), which has outsold BA in aircraft orders for the past five years and could further erode investor and customer trust in the company’s ability to deliver safe, reliable aircraft.