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Updated: 02-Apr-25 12:15 ET
Tesla turns positive as weak Q1 deliveries priced in; CEO stepping away from governing roles (TSLA)

There has been no shortage of noise surrounding Tesla (TSLA +5%) and its CEO Elon Musk. The alarms grew even louder following today's Q1 delivery figures, with the stock dropping by 6% immediately out of the gate. However, buyers quickly rushed in, igniting a decent rebound to bring shares above breakeven on the day.

News outlets have touched on how grim Tesla's Q1 deliveries would likely be over the past few months. For instance, two months ago, Bloomberg mentioned that sales cratered in Germany during February. The outlet followed up this report a week later, noting that shipments plunged in China during that same month. It did not help that Chinese competitors, including BYD (BYDDF), NIO (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI) were posting uplifting delivery figures during Q1 throughout the past several days. Then, just yesterday, Reuters remarked that sales in key European markets fell again in March.

Combining these trends with the overabundance of speedbumps in Tesla's way, from lingering inflation and elevated interest rates to 25% auto tariffs and a deteriorating brand image, it may not be too shocking that the stock was already down over 40% from December highs ahead of Q1 deliveries. This context helps explain why investors were quick to jump into Tesla shares today, as much of the bad news from the Q1 delivery report was digested beforehand.

At the same time, there have been reports today that Mr. Musk will step back from his role in the Trump administration in the coming weeks. Given the political backlash surrounding the Tesla CEO, investors view this as a positive development. It may lead to Mr. Musk focusing more on his primary EV company, which faces serious headwinds.

  • During Q1, Tesla's deliveries hit a nearly three-year low, posting 336,681, a 13% drop yr/yr. Deliveries did come in considerably below street estimates but were not disastrously far from the whisper number.
  • Meanwhile, production reached 362,615 units, a 16% decline yr/yr. The drop was primarily fueled by the changeover of Model Y lines across four of the company's factories, leading to the loss of several weeks of production.
  • Tesla added that the ramp of the new Model Y continues to progress well. With the vehicle being the best-selling SUV of the past two years, the refresh is critical to sustaining this upbeat demand.

Bottom line, Q1 deliveries were lackluster. However, this was not overly shocking given the string of reports ahead of the announcement today touching on how sales are struggling across the globe. With Elon Musk stepping away from his role within the Trump administration, perhaps the recent pronounced selling pressure will finally begin to ease.

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