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Updated: 10-Apr-25 13:25 ET
Costco's strong March comps underscore its resilience and strong competitive positioning (COST)
Costco's (COST) value proposition through offering products in bulk and through its Kirkland Signature private label continues to resonate with budget-conscious consumers as reflected by its strong March adjusted comparable sales growth of 9.1%. A favorable calendar shift related to the timing of Easter added approximately 1.5% to the comp growth, but the underlying performance is still impressive.

Similar to competitor Walmart (WMT), which reaffirmed its 1Q26 sales growth guidance and annual sales growth outlook yesterday, COST's business tends to strengthen relative to other retailers during economic downturns. In fact, COST has even outperformed price-focused WMT and Target (TGT), thanks to its resilient membership model, higher exposure to food and essentials, and a more affluent customer base.
  • On that note, COST's foot traffic increased by 7.5% in March, compared to declines of 3.8% at WMT and 6.5% at TGT. Once again, strong performance in food, fresh produce, and household essentials drove the healthy foot traffic and comp growth. However, non-food categories such as electronics and seasonal goods also positively contributed.
  • COST's e-Commerce channel continued to shine as adjusted comps jumped by 16.2% yr/yr, indicating robust momentum heading through 3Q25, which ends on May 11. Unlike Amazon's (AMZN) pure-play e-Commerce model, COST's omnichannel strategy combines the strengths of its physical warehouse locations with digital convenience, providing it with a competitive edge. Also, the company's expansion into "big and bulky" items, like appliances and furniture, has been a significant contributor to e-Commerce sales. COST logistics has streamlined delivery for these items, adding another layer of convenience.
  • Relative to many other retailers, COST is also more insulated from tariffs -- particularly on China. Only about one-third of COST's U.S. sales are imported with less than half of those imports coming from China. In comparison, WMT sources approximately 60% of its products from China, which now faces the stiffest tariffs with a 125% duty charged on Chinese imports. TGT has reduced its reliance on Chinese manufacturing in recent years, lowering its exposure to 30% from 60%, but that is still substantially higher than COST's exposure.
  • Like WMT, COST is pressuring suppliers to absorb some tariff costs, leveraging its scale and strong supplier relationships. The company has also accelerated inventory purchases and plans to replace less competitive imported items with better-value alternatives. 

COST demonstrated remarkable resilience in March, achieving strong comparable sales growth, driven by robust U.S. sales and significant e-commerce gains of 16.2%. This performance underscores COST's ability to thrive during economic uncertainty, leveraging its membership model and value-driven offerings to attract and retain customers seeking convenience and savings in a challenging retail environment.

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