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Updated: 26-Feb-25 11:06 ET
Intuit bounces back with huge EPS upside, calms nerves about DOGE launching a tax filing app (INTU)

Intuit (INTU +12%) has been on a downward trend since mid-December, but it's posting a nice gain today following its Q2 (Jan) earnings report last night. INTU focuses on small businesses and consumers (QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, Mailchimp). Note: INTU recently shut down its Mint offering and said users should migrate to Credit Karma.

  • INTU reported a huge EPS beat, its largest of any quarter in the past five years. Revenue grew a healthy 17% yr/yr to $3.96 bln, also ahead of expectations. The Q3 (Apr) guidance was mixed with downside EPS but upside revenue.
  • Its largest segment is its Global Business Solutions Group (formerly known as Small Business and Self-Employed Group), which is mostly QuickBooks. GBSG revenue jumped 19% yr/yr to $2.7 bln, including Online Ecosystem revenue being up 21% to $2.0 bln. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew 22%, driven by higher effective prices, customer growth, and mix shift. Intuit continues to prioritize disrupting the mid-market.
  • Its Credit Karma segment was a laggard in FY23, but recovered nicely in FY24 and that has continued in FY25 with progressively improving yr/yr revenue growth each quarter: +8% in Q3, +14% in Q4, +29% in Q1 and now +36% in Q2 to $511 mln. Results were driven by strength in credit cards, personal loans, and auto insurance. A bit of a headwind in Q3 is that Intuit will be lapping strong growth in auto insurance that began a year ago.
  • Consumer Group segment (TurboTax, both DIY and assisted) revenue grew 3% yr/yr to $509 mln, ahead of guidance for a low single-digit decline. Intuit said it was off to a strong start this tax season and reiterated guidance for segment revs to grow +7-8% in FY25. ProTax Group revenue was down 1% to $272 mln.
  • Besides earnings, we think another catalyst pushing the stock today was Intuit's response to a question about DOGE. The concern has been reports that DOGE plans to launch a free tax filing app for consumers. Intuit said on the call that DOGE's focus has been more on reducing waste, fraud and bureaucracy. While not mentioning the tax filing app specifically, Intuit did say it does not see any risk to the IRS providing services to consumers and businesses.

Overall, this was a great quarter for Intuit and puts them in a strong position heading into tax season. The mixed Q3 guidance was a bit of a concern, but investors do not seem overly worried. Also, there has been a lot of negativity priced into this stock on concerns about a free tax filing app from DOGE, but Intuit seems to have calmed some nerves about that on the call.

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