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Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), along with online operators such as Super Group (SGHC) and Entain Plc (GMVHY), is digesting new UK gambling duty proposals. The UK government announced that duties on iGaming will rise to 40% from 21% effective April 2026, while online sports betting duties will increase to 25% from 15% starting April 2027.

While the hikes are substantial, they remove a key overhang by clarifying the future tax framework. Operators have already begun outlining mitigation plans and cost measures to offset the impact once the new rates take effect.

• FLUT warned that, prior to mitigation, the duty increases are expected to reduce adjusted EBITDA by $320 mln in FY26 and $540 mln in 2027. Mitigation actions will include reductions in operational, promotional, and marketing spend, which may weigh on player engagement and shift some activity toward lower-cost or offshore alternatives.
• SGHC said the changes are expected to impact about 6% of its 2026 group adjusted EBITDA, noting it already has several mitigation levers in motion and does not expect the increases to affect its long-term strategy.
• Entain projected an EBITDA impact of about $100 mln in 2026 and roughly $150 mln in 2027, and believes it may gain market share over time as smaller operators struggle under the heavier duty structure.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

The UK's move to sharply increase remote gambling duties introduces a new structural headwind for operators with meaningful online exposure. All three, Flutter, Entain, and Super Group, have outlined mitigation plans that will soften the EBITDA impact, but these measures largely rely on reduced promotional, marketing, and operational spend, which could affect player engagement and competitive dynamics over time. At the same time, the broader competitive landscape continues to evolve. Prediction-style markets are gaining traction globally, and Flutter's upcoming FanDuel Predict launch highlights how major operators are beginning to lean into newer engagement formats. While not tied directly to the UK tax changes, the timing underscores how rising regulatory and cost pressures may push operators to diversify beyond traditional wagering models.