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Ibotta (IBTA) topped Q3 EPS and revenue expectations, but revenue fell by 15.5% yr/yr to $83.3 mln, representing its steepest revenue decline since going public in April 2024. This decline was attributed to macroeconomic headwinds including weak consumer sentiment and CPG clients delaying spending. The stock is plunging lower following the earnings release.

• The midpoint of IBTA’s Q4 revenue guidance of $80-$85 mln is below expectations, fueling investor disappointment. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 of $9-$12 mln at midpoint represents a yr/yr decline exceeding 62%.
• Key operational metrics showed mixed signals. Quarterly redeemers on the Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) increased 19% yr/yr to 18.2 mln, reflecting demand strength. However, third-party publisher redemptions fell 6% to 62.1 mln, indicating some softness in redemption frequency.
• Strategic initiatives announced include a new partnership with Circana to provide third-party sales lift measurement, allowing clients independent verification of promotional effectiveness.
• Another initiative, LiveLift, is an enhanced solution for CPG brands to optimize campaigns in real time, helping improve targeting and ROI.
• Management emphasized that these initiatives, combined with ongoing transformation of IBTA’s sales organization and product suite, position the company for future growth despite near-term challenges.
• LiveLift pilots have shown promising results with clients already expanding campaign investments after trials. Broader market adoption is expected in 2026, supported by improved AI-driven optimization and sales execution.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

IBTA’s 3Q25 results and guidance reflect clear pain points in revenue and EBITDA caused by consumer and client caution amid economic uncertainty. The robust redeemer growth juxtaposed with falling redemption volume underscores shifts in user behavior and offer dynamics. The company’s strategic pivot to outcomes-based performance marketing and enhanced measurement solutions like LiveLift and Circana partnership reflect forward-looking efforts to drive incremental sales with measurable ROI. While Q4 guidance tempers near-term optimism, management’s roadmap for broader adoption of AI-enabled campaign optimization solutions and sales execution improvements provide a potential foundation for recovery and growth in 2026. However, caution is warranted given the steep revenue contraction and sizable adjusted EBITDA decline anticipated this quarter.