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Nebius Group (NBIS) is trading lower today after reporting its Q3 results this morning. The company narrowed its adjusted EBITDA loss to $5.2 mln from $45.9 mln, while adjusted net loss widened to $100.4 mln from $39.7 mln. Revenue was robust, soaring 355% yr/yr and 39% sequentially to $146.1 mln, though that fell short of estimates and likely reflects ongoing capacity constraints. Its FY25 revenue guidance of $500-550 mln also came in below expectations.

• The core infrastructure business (about 90% of revenue) grew 400% yr/yr and 40% sequentially, with core ARR reaching $551 mln.
• Results were fueled by strong demand, as management again noted it sold out of all available capacity, consistent with its track record of filling new deployments immediately.
• The highlight was a new $3 bln, five-year deal with Meta (META), limited only by available capacity. This follows the $17-19 bln Microsoft (MSFT) contract signed in September, with more large-scale agreements expected.
• In terms of these megadeals, the company will begin serving Microsoft mid-to-late in the quarter, with revenue from them ramping throughout 2026.
• Capacity remains the main bottleneck to growth; Nebius plans to expand contracted power to 2.5 GW (from 1 GW in Q2) and connect 800 MW-1 GW of data center power by end-2026.
• The company remains on track to reach $900 mln-$1.1 bln ARR by the end of FY25, and targets $7-9 bln ARR by end of 2026, supported by accelerated capacity expansion and new AI software offerings. Formal FY26 guidance will follow next quarter.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

The $3 bln META deal was the clear headline, reaffirming Nebius's growing relevance among hyperscalers. However, the revenue miss and softer FY25 outlook tempered enthusiasm, as capacity constraints remain a critical near-term headwind. While growth momentum is undeniable, investors appear cautious following the stock's strong run and a broader stabilization in AI sentiment. Peer CoreWeave (CRWV) also issued softer guidance, though that appears tied to one customer rather than broader demand. Overall, Nebius is positioned well for 2026, and its capacity plan and ARR targets underscore that, but for now, the combination of limited capacity, a strong recent run, and more balanced AI sentiment are weighing on the stock today.