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Ford Motor (F) delivered stronger-than-expected Q3 results, with both EPS and revenue exceeding estimates as unit sales rose 8.2% yr/yr to 545,522 vehicles. The beat was driven by robust demand for SUVs and pickup trucks, alongside a record quarter for electric vehicles (EVs). Adjusted EBIT was flat yr/yr at $2.6 bln but topped expectations, underscoring solid operational performance despite ongoing cost pressures.

• Ford’s Model e (EVs) segment posted a 52% yr/yr revenue surge to $1.8 bln, supported by strong sales of the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning ahead of the EV tax credit expiration. However, segment EBIT declined to $(1.41) bln from $(1.23) bln, reflecting higher input costs, tariffs, and the Louisville Assembly Plant changeover.
• Ford Blue, which includes its traditional ICE lineup, grew revenue 7.0% to $28.0 bln, though EBIT dipped slightly to $1.54 bln as pricing normalized.
• The company trimmed its FY25 adjusted EBIT guidance to $6.0-$6.5 bln (from $6.5-$7.5 bln) and adjusted free cash flow to $2-$3 bln (from $3.5-$4.5 bln), citing the mid-September Novelis aluminum plant fire.
• The fire is expected to create a $1.5-$2.0 bln adjusted EBITDA headwind in 2025, with the full impact recognized in Q4.
• Ford emphasized that it would have guided above its prior EBIT range if not for the Novelis disruption, noting that performance was tracking toward $8 bln-plus in adjusted EBIT before the fire. The company expects to mitigate at least $1.0 bln of lost EBIT in 2026.
• The Novelis plant restart is now expected later this year -- ahead of the original 2026 timeline -- although F-150 production will face temporary disruptions.
• Ford also plans to boost F-150 and F-Series Super Duty production by over 50,000 trucks in 2026 to meet demand and offset lost output. F-150 Lightning production remains paused as Ford prioritizes its gas and hybrid models amid strong consumer demand.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Ford’s Q3 report reinforced its underlying operational strength and demand resilience, even in the face of temporary disruptions. The beat across earnings and sales demonstrates that its core ICE business remains healthy while EV adoption continues to gather momentum. Although the reduced FY25 guidance initially looks disappointing, management’s transparency in attributing the shortfall to the Novelis fire -- a one-off event -- is giving investors confidence. In fact, Ford’s commentary that EBIT would have exceeded prior guidance underscores the health of the underlying business. With EVs showing strong top-line growth and Ford Blue continuing to generate solid profitability, the company appears well-positioned for a rebound in 2026 once the supply issues abate. While execution risks remain, Ford’s swift operational response and production recovery plans suggest the recent headwinds are temporary rather than structural.