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Updated: 11-Oct-23 12:32 ET
Sherwin-Williams' initial gains, fueled by a new CEO, fade; investors cautious ahead of Q3 (SHW)

After electing a new CEO, Sherwin-Williams (SHW) enjoyed a splash of green today, only for shares to turn red toward mid-day. The coatings supplier announced that its current COO, Heidi Petz, would assume the CEO position, succeeding John Morikis, who will maintain his position as Executive Chairman. The news followed a multi-year succession plan to identify a new company leader. Ms. Petz will begin her duties as CEO beginning January 1, 2024.

Albeit a short two-year stint as COO, Heidi Petz has been with the company since 2017, previously serving as President of The Americas Group and Consumer Brands Group, SHW's smallest segment, comprised of retail-related sales.

Although SHW is likely in good hands with Ms. Petz at the helm, it does not mean that SHW is staring at smooth sailing ahead, likely keeping a lid on today's gains.

  • Last quarter, the market was encouraged by healthy demand trends across multiple end markets, setting up for a robust second half of the year. However, mortgage rates have only climbed since SHW's Q2 results in late July, potentially weighing on new home starts, a significant component of the company's revenue.
  • Likewise, SHW's continuously resilient businesses, such as Auto Refinish and General Industrial, could begin encountering softness after multiple periods of meaningful growth. Higher interest rates could start eroding auto OEM demand while dragging down demand for housing upgrades, such as furniture, cabinetry, and flooring.
  • While it was uplifting to see peer RPM Inc (RPM) tick higher on solid AugQ numbers earlier this month, much of it stemmed from improving overseas conditions, a development SHW may not be able to take much advantage of. SHW derives around a fifth of its total revenue from its international footprint, relying primarily on active domestic demand. Notably, RPM commented that the U.S. housing market continued to be weak, clipping its North American sales during the quarter, a red flag ahead of SHW's Q3 report on October 24.

A new CEO can generate initial enthusiasm among investors as the market grows excited about potential changes. Nevertheless, as the market digests a new incoming CEO, initial exuberance can fade; this is unfolding for SHW today. At the same time, investors are maintaining a healthy dose of caution ahead of SHW's Q3 report in under two weeks as the macroeconomic environment remains uneasy.

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