Steel Yourself: NUE and STLD See Higher Prices Despite Q3 EPS Miss
Nucor (NUE -6%) and Steel Dynamics (STLD -5%) both guided Q3 EPS below analyst expectations, surprising investors given that Q3 is seasonally important for steelmakers as warmer weather typically supports higher shipments and stronger demand from nonresidential construction, infrastructure, and related fabrication. While the cautious outlooks may temper near-term enthusiasm, both companies pointed to higher steel selling prices, with STLD also expecting lower scrap costs. The setup remains constructive for domestic steelmakers, as tight supply, trade protection, low customer inventories, and solid end-market demand continue to support pricing even without a broad-based demand boom.
- Nucor: NUE guided to Q3 EPS of $5.55-5.65, below analyst expectations. The company expects earnings to increase in its steel mills and steel products segments but decline in raw materials. Higher average selling prices and stable volumes are expected to support the steel mills segment, partially offset by higher costs of products sold, while higher corporate/eliminations expense is also expected to weigh on Q3 results.
- Steel Dynamics: STLD guided to Q3 EPS of $5.34-5.38, also below expectations. The company expects higher average realized steel selling values combined with lower scrap costs to support results. STLD also said customer order activity remains strong, supported by solid underlying demand and persistently low customer inventories, which continue to support favorable pricing conditions.
- End markets: Steel demand remains solid across key markets, led by nonresidential construction, energy, automotive, and industrial sectors. Q3 is seasonally important for steel shipments as warmer weather supports construction activity, making the below-consensus guidance from both producers somewhat more notable.
- Pricing: The most encouraging element of the outlooks is that both companies are seeing higher steel selling prices. The US steel market remains supported by tight domestic supply and trade protection, while underlying demand is solid rather than booming. The 50% U.S. tariff on steel imports has materially reduced import competition, helping domestic producers maintain pricing power. Combined with low customer inventories and solid order activity, the current environment remains supportive of domestic steel prices and producer margins.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
NUE and STLD delivered a notable near-term surprise by guiding Q3 EPS below expectations, particularly given the seasonal importance of the quarter for steel shipments. The cautious guidance suggests that investors should not assume that higher steel prices will immediately translate into an outsized earnings acceleration, as costs and corporate expenses remain potential offsets. However, the underlying commentary was more constructive than the headline EPS guidance suggests. Both companies are seeing higher selling prices, while STLD is also benefiting from lower scrap costs and persistently low customer inventories. With imports constrained by the 50% tariff, domestic supply relatively tight, and demand remaining solid across construction, energy, automotive, and industrial markets, the industry backdrop remains supportive.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Under Pressure as Psychiatry Pause Overshadows NDA Milestone (XENE)
Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) is under heavy pressure today after voluntarily pausing new patient enrollment in its ongoing clinical studies in major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar depression (BPD). XENE also submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for azetukalner in focal seizures, although the positive regulatory milestone is being overshadowed by the psychiatry pause.
- Azetukalner: The drug is being developed for the treatment of epilepsy, major depressive disorder, and bipolar depression. Azetukalner is a selective Kv7 potassium channel opener designed to increase potassium flow and reduce excessive neuronal excitability in the central nervous system.
- Pause: The pause comes after XENE observed neuropsychiatric adverse events in its Phase 3 MDD and BPD studies. XENE said the number and severity of events are consistent with azetukalner's known safety and tolerability profile, although these events had not been observed in the Phase 2 X-NOVA study in MDD. The precautionary pause is expected to be temporary, while currently enrolled patients will remain in the studies.
- NDA: The submission is based on positive clinical data from the Phase 2b X-TOLE and Phase 3 X-TOLE2 studies, with azetukalner demonstrating statistically significant reductions in monthly focal-seizure frequency compared with placebo.
- What's next: XENE is evaluating whether modifying the dosing regimen may improve azetukalner's tolerability profile in psychiatric indications. Completing X-NOVA2 is the next major test, helping determine efficacy and tolerability in MDD. Enrollment has been completed at approximately 360 patients, with topline data expected in Q1 2027.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
While the NDA submission for azetukalner in focal seizures marks a major milestone for XENE, bringing it closer to a potential first approval and launch and its goal of becoming a fully integrated neuroscience company, that development is taking a back seat to the psychiatry pause today. XENE does not have any commercial products, so setbacks or potential signals that could delay development timelines can drive outsized moves in the stock. Importantly, XENE says the pause does not change its view of the epilepsy program and continues to characterize the psychiatry pause as precautionary and temporary. The X-NOVA2 readout in Q1 2027 will be important in determining azetukalner's efficacy and tolerability in MDD and helping guide how XENE proceeds with the broader psychiatry program.
Cooper rises as JANA pushes for new CEO and asset sales after weak outlook (COO)
The Cooper Companies (COO) is trading higher after JANA Partners called for an external search to replace CEO Al White, a new board chair and consideration of asset sales, intensifying pressure following the post-earnings selloff. The intervention comes after COO decided to retain CooperSurgical in a strategic review, with shares down 23% since August 31 and investors still weighing weak Q4 guidance against the potential for strategic change.
- The Board judged offers for CooperSurgical insufficient and chose to retain it, while saying it remains open to value creating alternatives. JANA is pressing for a broader examination that includes potential buyers for CooperVision. CooperSurgical grew 3% organically in Q3, led by 5% fertility growth.
- JANA Partners wants COO to search externally for a replacement for CEO Al White, appoint a new board chair and consider sales of CooperVision and CooperSurgical assets. Its demands are gaining traction after Q3 CooperVision revenue was flat despite mid-single-digit U.S. consumption growth and COO issued weak Q4 guidance, exposing a gap between underlying demand and reported results.
- Q3 revenue was $717 mln, roughly flat yr/yr, as U.S. channel destocking obscured mid-single-digit consumption growth. Management said Americas revenue would have grown about 5% without the inventory reduction, but also acknowledged difficulty converting contract wins into sales.
- Q4 guidance calls for non-GAAP EPS of $1.05-$1.09 and revenue of $1.057-$1.080 bln, with CooperVision organic sales forecast to decline 2% to remain flat.
- Shares are rising on the possibility that leadership or portfolio changes could unlock value, although any financial benefit depends on the Board’s response and improved sales execution.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
JANA gives shareholders a potential route to leadership or portfolio change, but COO’s operating recovery still depends on completing the planned inventory reduction and improving sales execution. Management expects most destocking to end in Q4, setting up a test of whether reported CooperVision growth moves closer to underlying U.S. consumption in FY27. If that gap persists, a larger sales force could add expense before it delivers enough revenue to offset the higher tax rate. The next evidence will be CooperVision’s reported growth, the return on commercial spending and the Board’s response to JANA’s proposals
Fluence Under Pressure as Houston Delays Drive Another Guidance Cut (FLNC)
Fluence Energy (FLNC) is under pressure after cutting its FY26 guidance due to supply chain issues affecting its U.S. production, with revenue now expected at approximately $2.4 bln and adjusted EBITDA at a loss of approximately $(200) mln, reductions of $600 mln and $190 mln, respectively, from its prior outlook. FLNC provides energy storage products, operational services, and software used to support grid reliability, power quality, and growing electricity demand. The guidance cut is particularly notable as FLNC had just lowered its outlook with its Q3 (Jun) report in early August, largely due to manufacturing ramp delays.
- Execution: FLNC continued to face delays ramping its Houston contract manufacturing facility, which had already contributed to its Q3 guidance cut. Management now says it underestimated the complexity of the ramp, with production averaging less than one unit per day in August versus the 11 units per day assumed in its prior guidance. Production improved to roughly three units per day in early September.
- Bridge: More than 80% of the $600 mln revenue reduction reflects U.S. production issues, including $450 mln from delays and $65 mln of late-delivery penalties. The $190 mln EBITDA reduction includes $65 mln of penalties, $65 mln of gross margin shifted into FY27, and $60 mln of higher costs.
- Demand: FLNC says demand remains robust domestically and internationally, supported by utility and IPP demand and growing opportunities tied to data centers. In Q3, order intake nearly tripled yr/yr to $1.44 bln, while backlog reached a record $6.4 bln, up 14% q/q and more than 30% yr/yr.
- Next steps: FLNC appointed Bernerd Da Santos as COO and is implementing corrective actions across supply chain planning, manufacturing oversight, supplier resiliency, and contract manufacturer evaluation. For FY27, management is targeting delivery of its $2.9 bln backlog, no need for additional capital, and neutral-to-positive operating cash flow.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The guidance cut is significant and is driving the sharp move lower today, but particularly concerning is that this marks FLNC's second reduction in a short period of time, raising questions around execution and visibility. Management had sounded more upbeat about the Houston ramp following its Q3 report, but production subsequently came in well below the assumptions embedded in that revised outlook. Demand remains strong and backlog reached a record level in Q3, suggesting the issue is operational rather than demand-driven. Still, backlog conversion depends on FLNC's ability to improve production and consistently meet project milestones. Management's corrective actions and $2.9 bln FY27 backlog provide a path forward, but stronger production at Houston will likely be needed to rebuild confidence in the outlook.
Intuit holds outlook steady as investors await proof of AI-driven growth (INTU)
Intuit (INTU) is little changed after reaffirming Q1 and FY27 guidance at Investor Day, providing continuity following the stock’s recent decline. Q1 adjusted EPS remains $2.44-$2.48 on revenue of $4.294-$4.313 bln, both near the FactSet consensus, while FY27 revenue guidance brackets expectations and its $22.88-$23.12 adjusted EPS range sits just below the $23.25 estimate.
- Beginning in FY27, INTU includes stock-based compensation in its non-GAAP results. Prior-year adjusted EPS excluded it. The FY27 EPS range incorporates an estimated $5.81 per-share impact from this change, so comparisons with the Q4 beat or earlier-year results require a consistent accounting basis.
- Looking back, fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $4.03 exceeded the $3.58 FactSet consensus, while revenue of $4.35 bln topped the $4.27 bln estimate. Revenue grew 14% yr/yr, supported by Global Business Solutions and Credit Karma.
- FY27 guidance calls for 13-14% revenue growth in Global Business Solutions and 11-13% in Credit Karma, compared with 2-3% growth in TurboTax and flat to slightly lower Mailchimp revenue. Mailchimp becomes a separate reportable segment in FY27, making its performance easier to assess.
- Management is emphasizing its AI-driven expert platform, larger growth initiatives, and new-customer acquisition. The key measures will be whether those efforts sustain QuickBooks growth, improve customer engagement, and produce profitable growth across the business.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The reaffirmation keeps INTU’s operating plan on track, but it offers limited new evidence about the pace of its FY27 growth initiatives. Investors should distinguish the accounting-driven effect on adjusted EPS from changes in underlying profitability before interpreting the gap to consensus. Global Business Solutions and Credit Karma carry the strongest growth expectations, while slower TurboTax growth and Mailchimp’s projected stagnation leave less room for uneven execution. Q1 results will test whether customer gains and AI features are translating into revenue at the expected pace. Subsequent reports will need to show how that growth converts into operating income under the revised reporting method.