Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a firmly higher opening this morning as oil prices and Treasury yields retreat to start the week, with crude oil down roughly 2.5% to under $98 per barrel and the 10-year note yield down to 4.95%.

The market has been largely driven by oil and yields, as well as the performance of AI-related stocks in recent sessions, driving some choppy action last week that saw the Nasdaq Composite rise by 0.7%, while the DJIA slid 1.7%, its worst week since March.

Those themes remain in focus following last week's FOMC rate hike, with the simultaneous pullback in oil and Treasury yields providing a favorable backdrop for equities this morning. On the geopolitical front, President Trump threatened another attack on Iran but said he remains open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during this week's United Nations General Assembly, according to CNBC. The potential for diplomacy comes as U.S.-Iran tensions remain an important influence on oil markets.

Strength is also extending to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin crossing the $85,000 mark to reach its best level since January.

The economic data calendar is relatively light this week following last week's Fed decision, although President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet later this week, putting U.S.-China trade relations in focus. There is no economic data of note today.

In corporate news:

• OpenAI anticipates a cash burn rate of nearly $280 billion by the end of 2030, according to Financial Times.
• Anthropic's IPO is likely to happen in November, as opposed to October, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO 41.21, -$2.03, -4.7%) said CagriSema achieved 12.4% weight loss versus 9.1% for tirzepatide at week 60 in a Phase III diabetes trial, meeting the superiority endpoint.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.88, +0.67, +6.6%) is in settlement talks with states as it aims to secure approval for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 2981, +2.01, +7.2%), according to Reuters.
• Marvell (MRVL) will showcase 2nm optical interconnect demonstrations aimed at next-generation AI data center connectivity at ECOC 2026.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Nikkei reported that Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher amid lower oil prices and bond yields, while Japan was closed for Respect for the Aged Day.

In news:

• Nikkei reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent described his meeting with China’s foreign minister, He Lifeng, as successful, with discussions including trade negotiations and proposals for handling AI incidents.
• Japan’s markets will remain closed through September 23 for holidays.

In economic data:

• South Korea September exports 1-20 days 78.3% yr/yr (prior 56.0%) and imports 26.7% yr/yr (prior 19.0%) --- Equity Markets ---
• Japan's Nikkei: closed for holiday
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.2%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.0%
• India's Sensex: +0.8%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.7%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: flat --- FX --- USD/JPY: +0.2% to 157.18 USD/INR: -0.2% to 95.865 USD/CNH: flat at 6.6938

European markets are higher as lower oil prices and bond yields provide support.

In news:

• Brent crude futures fell following reports of better-than-expected Saudi Arabian exports and the potential for diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.
• The U.S., Denmark, and Greenland reached an agreement allowing the U.S. to develop a significant military presence in Greenland and block others from doing the same.

In economic data:

• U.K.'s September Rightmove House Price Index 0.7% m/m (prior -2.0%) and -0.8% yr/yr (prior -1.0%) --- Equity Markets --- STOXX Europe 600: +1.2%
• Germany's DAX: +1.2%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.0%
• France's CAC 40: +1.0%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +1.2%