Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 22 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note. China reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus for July, though the total was down from June's record level of $125 bln. Chinese AI models from Alibaba and Moonshot are becoming more expensive. President Trump implemented a 15% tariff on polysilicon products from China and announced a price floor.

• In economic data:
  • China's July trade surplus $112.50 bln (expected surplus of $108.60 bln; last surplus of $125.62 bln). July Imports 27.5% yr/yr (expected 27.9%; last 36.0%) and Exports 23.9% yr/yr (expected 22.2%; last 27.0%)
  • Japan's June Household Spending -6.4% m/m (expected -3.1%; last 3.7%); -3.3% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last -0.4%). June Leading Index 116.4 (expected 116.5; last 116.4) and Coincident Indicator 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.2%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.1% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5% 
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.0% 
• India's Sensex: -0.6% 
• South Korea's Kospi: -0.6% 
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

Major European indices trade in the green. FT reported that the European Central Bank was not aware of the Fed's participation in the yen intervention last week. Insurer Allianz beat profit expectations for Q2 while Daimler reported weak results.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's June trade surplus EUR15.4 bln (expected surplus of EUR17.2 bln; last surplus of EUR19.4 bln). June Imports 4.4% m/m (expected 1.0%; last -2.6%) and Exports 0.9% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 1.1%). June Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.7%); 0.0% yr/yr (last -0.1%)
  • France's Q2 Unemployment Rate 8.3% (expected 8.2%; last 8.1%). June trade deficit EUR5.8 bln (expected deficit of EUR6.5 bln; last deficit of EUR7.7 bln). June Current Account deficit EUR1.40 bln (last deficit of EUR1.20 bln) 
  • Swiss Q3 SECO Consumer Climate -33 (expected -34; last -40)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.7% 
• Germany's DAX: +1,0% 
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% 
• France's CAC 40: +0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% 
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%