The stock market is now on track for a mostly higher opening, with a better-than-expected June CPI print giving equity futures a boost this morning.
Total CPI was down 0.4% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%), which was the largest one-month drop since April 2020. That move was paced by a 5.7% decline in the index for energy. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%), leaving it up 2.6% year-over-year versus 2.9% in May. Total CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year versus 4.2% in May.
The key takeaway from the report is the softening in core inflation and the added softening in super core inflation, which excludes food, energy, and shelter. That component was up just 2.1% year-over-year. Inflation has not been slayed, but this report should be enough to keep the FOMC on hold at its July 28-29 meeting.