Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which are sending oil prices higher.

Stocks are coming off a winning week that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach record highs multiple times, including on Friday. Oil prices were volatile last week as well, but the market was buoyed by an impressive week of mega-cap earnings, featuring massive beats across several "magnificent seven" names and, in many cases, impressive forward guidance.

This week will be nearly just as busy on the earnings front, though not quite so when it comes to mega-cap tech names.

This morning's weakness is being attributed to renewed tensions on the geopolitical front, with President Trump threatening more strikes against Iran. The U.S. & Iran are still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war, but President Trump says he can't imagine that Iran's current offer will be acceptable, according to Axios. Additionally, there are conflicting reports that Iran struck a U.S. ship with a missile near the Strait of Hormuz, though U.S. officials have denied the claims.

Currently, crude oil is up $2.04 (+2.0%) to $103.98 per barrel.

In corporate news:

• Exxon (XOM 153.65, +0.90, +0.6%) is looking seriously at Venezuela after earlier telling President Trump that the country was not worth investing in, according to Bloomberg.
• GameStop (GME 25.85, -0.68, -2.6%) has proposed to buy eBay (EBAY 112.05, +7.93, +7.8%) for $125 per share in a cash and stock deal.
• Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH 17.62, -1.19, -6.3%) beat EPS expectations by $0.09, missed revenue expectations, and guided Q2 and FY26 EPS below consensus.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note while markets in China and Japan were closed for holidays. Japan's Nikkei: CLOSED, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.2%, China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED, India's Sensex: +0.5%, South Korea's Kospi: +5.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%.

In news:

• China's markets will remain closed tomorrow while Japan's markets will be closed through Wednesday.
• South Korea's Kospi jumped more than 5.0% to a fresh record high after being closed on Friday.
• Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi pledged to increase defense cooperation with Australia.
• A senior Bank of Korea policymaker believes that the central bank should consider a rate hike, according to Yonhap.

In economic data:

• South Korea's April Manufacturing PMI 53.6 (last 52.6)
• Singapore's April Manufacturing PMI 50.7 (last 50.5)
• Australia's April MI Inflation Gauge 0.6% (last 1.3%) and April ANZ Job Advertisements -0.8% (last -3.2%). March Building Approvals -10.5% m/m (expected -10.2%; last 31.0%); 9.0% yr/yr (last 16.1%). March Private House Approvals 0.9% m/m (last 2.0%)
• India's April Manufacturing PMI 54.7 (expected 55.9; last 53.9)

Major European indices trade in the red while the U.K.'s FTSE is closed for Early May Bank Holiday. STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%, Germany's DAX: UNCH, U.K.'s FTSE 100: CLOSED, France's CAC 40: -0.9%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.6%.

In news:

• The European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters raised the 2026 harmonized inflation forecast for the EU to 2.2% from 1.8% while the growth outlook was reduced to 1.0% from 1.2%.
• ECB policymaker De Guindos said that the war impact has not been fully reflected in economic data, but forward indicators point to a significant impact.
• Meanwhile, policymaker Rehn said that fast action will be needed if second-round inflation effects appear.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's April Manufacturing PMI 52.2, as expected (last 51.6). May Sentix Investor Confidence -16.4 (expected -20.9; last -19.2)
• Germany's April Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 51.2; last 52.2)
• Italy's April Manufacturing PMI 52.1 (expected 51.6; last 51.3)
• France's April Manufacturing PMI 52.8, as expected (last 50.0)
• Spain's April Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (expected 49.5; last 48.7)
• Swiss April Manufacturing PMI 54.5 (expected 52.0; last 53.3)