Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market is once again being driven by fluctuating geopolitical tensions ahead of President Trump's 8:00 p.m. ET negotiation deadline with Iran.

The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and DJIA (-0.4%) are rebounding from their earlier lows that followed reports of fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, President Trump's threat that a "whole civilization will die tonight" if a deal is not struck, and reports that Iran cut off communications with the U.S.

Stocks moved lower in broad fashion as oil climbed above the $116 per barrel mark, though recent updates have softened the losses. In particular, Iran's state-controlled media, Tehran Times, refuted claims that communications have ceased, while Axios reported that modest progress has been made regarding a ceasefire deal.

Currently, crude oil is up $2.17 (+1.9%) to $114.58 per barrel, off its earlier highs. The energy sector (+0.4%) has ceded the bulk of its earlier gains amid the retreat in oil prices, but remains one of just three S&P 500 sectors to hold a gain.

The defensive utilities sector (+0.5%) also garners some rotational interest, while the communication services sector (+0.5%) is supported by Alphabet's (GOOG 300.70, +3.04, +1.02%) gain, which makes it the only "magnificent seven" stock that trades higher today.

Alphabet benefits from announcing a long-term partnership with Broadcom (AVGO 331.97, +17.54, +5.58%) in which Broadcom will work to develop and supply custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) to Google.

Elsewhere in the sector, Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.78, +0.93, +9.48%) sees an extension of yesterday's strength after it confirmed commitments from Saudi-wealth funds for its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 27.36, -0.04, -0.16%).

Mega-cap weakness elsewhere weighs on the major averages and keeps the consumer discretionary (-1.5%) and information technology (-0.5%) sectors lower, though the latter has seen considerable recent improvement.

Apple (AAPL 251.78, -7.08, -2.74%) is a notable laggard after Nikkei Asia reported that its foldable iPhone will likely be delayed due to engineering hurdles.

In other corporate news, managed care names such as UnitedHealth (UNH 309.39, +28.03, +9.96%) and Humana (HUM 197.04, +14.38, +7.88%) are rallying after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released its CY27 Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D Rate Announcement, which came in meaningfully better than expected and eased concerns about ongoing margin pressure.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) have also bounced off their previous lows.

With the deadline approaching and headlines continuing to shift, geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant driver of market direction. Even if tonight's deadline is self-imposed, the risk of further escalation is likely to keep volatility elevated and oil prices supported, creating a continued headwind for equities.

Reviewing today's data:

• February Durable Orders -1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to -0.5% from 0.0%, February Durable Orders - ex transportation 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in February was concentrated largely in transportation and capital goods orders. Otherwise, order activity was decent, highlighted by a 0.6% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending.