Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 35 points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly lower showing on Tuesday. China's National Development and Reform Commission blocked Meta's planned $2 bln acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.75%, as expected, though three out of nine policymakers voted for a hike. The central bank lowered its domestic growth forecast for the year to 0.5% from 1.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 2.5-3.0% from 1.9-2.0%. Moody's raised China's outlook to Stable from Negative.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's March jobs/applications ratio 1.18, as expected (last 1.19) and March Unemployment Rate 2.7% (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%). February BoJ Core CPI 2.5% yr/yr (last 2.2%)
  • Hong Kong's March trade deficit $89.1 bln (last deficit of HKD64.2 bln). March Imports 41.2% m/m (last 29.9%) and Exports 35.8% m/m (last 24.7%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.0%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.0%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.2%
• India's Sensex: -0.5%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Spain's IBEX (+0.6%) and Italy's MIB (+0.8%) outperform. The European Central Bank released its Consumer Expectations survey for March, showing a jump in year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.0% from 2.5% while the three-year outlook increased to 3.0% from 2.5%. The survey also showed that the economy is expected to contract by 2.1%, down from the previous forecast for a contraction of 0.9%. Barclays reported good results for Q1 and reaffirmed its guidance while BP reported strong results.

• In economic data:
  • Italy's February Industrial Sales 0.6% m/m (last -0.2%); 0.5% yr/yr (last -0.8%). March PPI 4.4% m/m (last -0.4%); 4.2% yr/yr (last -2.7%)
  • Spain's Q1 Unemployment Rate 10.83% (expected 9.80%; last 9.93%) and March Retail Sales 4.1% yr/yr (last 2.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%
• Germany's DAX: -0.2%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%
• France's CAC 40: -0.2%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.8%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%