Stock Market Update

Equity futures had been mixed, but they have turned higher on an Al Arabiya report that Pakistan may soon announce a resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran. That report has not been confirmed yet by U.S. news organizations, but oil prices are moving on it—and moving pretty noticeably. WTI crude futures were pushing $98.00/bbl but quickly fell below $94.00/bbl following the report. They are currently at $94.66/bbl, down 1.2%.

CNN, for its part, said Iran is sending a delegation to Pakistan but that it is unclear if there will be any U.S. engagement.

The drop in oil prices has been a focal point of support, along with the news that Israel and Lebanon have extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks. The real focal point before all that, though, was Intel's (INTC) earnings report after yesterday's close, which impressed in all regards. INTC is up a whopping 28% in its wake, which is giving the semiconductor stocks yet another boost that is driving the outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 futures.

The added translation here is that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, up 32.8% this month (!) is set to go even more parabolic at today's open. Naturally, that will have traders on watch for a blowoff top that leads to a sharp reversal.

The lone piece of economic data today is the final print for the April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. That will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. The preliminary report produced a record-low reading of 47.6.

The 10-yr note yield had risen to 4.33% but has eased back to 4.31%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 98.58.

In corporate news:

• Hartford Financial (HIG 133.00, -6.61, -4.7%) misses by $0.30, misses on revs
• Intel (INTC 85.15, +18.37, +27.5%) beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
• NIKE (NKE 44.96, +0.18, +0.4%) to eliminate 1400 jobs, according to CNBC
• Oracle (ORCL 180.74, +4.46, +2.5%): $300 billion deal with OpenAI is facing funding challenges. WSJ
• Procter & Gamble (PG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance

Equity indices in the Asia Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note, though Japan's Nikkei (+1.0%) bucked the trend, settling at a fresh record high. Japan's Nikkei: +1.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: -1.3%, South Korea's Kospi: unch, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.

In news:

• China is expected to increase its grain harvest forecast for 2026 with stable prices.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet secretary repeated that there is no need for a supplementary budget at this time.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) had a strong showing after Taiwan's regulators increased the limit on single-equity holdings by mutual funds and ETFs.
• Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, making for the first hike in two years.

In economic data:

• China's March FDI -7.3% YTD (last -5.7%) o Japan's March National CPI 0.4% m/m; 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.3%). March National Core CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.6%). March Corporate Services Price Index 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.7%)
• Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.6%)

Major European indices are on track for a mostly lower finish to the week while Germany's DAX (+0.4%) outperforms with help from a strong post-earnings showing from SAP. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: +0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%.

In news:

• The U.K. reported above-consensus Retail Sales for March (0.7%; expected 0.0%), but year-over-year core sales growth decelerated to 1.7% from 2.7% (expected 2.0%), inviting some concerns about stagflation.
• Bank of England policymaker Breeden said that equity markets are too high and are set to fall.
• Germany reported weak sentiment data for April with the ifo Business Climate Index coming in at its lowest level since late 2022.

In economic data:

• Germany's April ifo Business Climate Index 84.4 (expected 85.7; last 86.3). April Current Assessment 85.4 (expected 86.2; last 86.7) and Business Expectations 83.3 (expected 85.0; last 85.9)
• U.K.'s March Retail Sales 0.7% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.8%). March Core Retail Sales 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 2.7%)
• France's April Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 88; last 89)
• Spain's March PPI 3.4% yr/yr (last -6.9%)