Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures trade 24 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note, though Japan's Nikkei (+1.0%) bucked the trend, settling at a fresh record high. China is expected to increase its grain harvest forecast for 2026 with stable prices. Japan's Chief Cabinet secretary repeated that there is no need for a supplementary budget at this time. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) had a strong showing after Taiwan's regulators increased the limit on single-equity holdings by mutual funds and ETFs. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, making for the first hike in two years.

• In economic data:
  • China's March FDI -7.3% YTD (last -5.7%) o Japan's March National CPI 0.4% m/m; 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.3%). March National Core CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.6%). March Corporate Services Price Index 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.7%)
  • Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.6%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.0% (+2.1% this week)
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2% (-0.7% this week)
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3% (+0.7% this week)
• India's Sensex: -1.3% (-2.3% this week)
• South Korea's Kospi: UNCH (+4.6% this week)
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2% (-1.8% this week)

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. The U.K. reported above-consensus Retail Sales for March (0.7%; expected 0.0%), but year-over-year core sales growth decelerated to 1.7% from 2.7% (expected 2.0%), inviting some concerns about stagflation. Meanwhile, Bank of England policymaker Breeden said that equity markets are too high and are set to fall. Germany reported weak sentiment data for April with the ifo Business Climate Index coming in at its lowest level since late 2022.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's April ifo Business Climate Index 84.4 (expected 85.7; last 86.3). April Current Assessment 85.4 (expected 86.2; last 86.7) and Business Expectations 83.3 (expected 85.0; last 85.9)
  • U.K.'s March Retail Sales 0.7% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.8%). March Core Retail Sales 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 2.7%)
  • France's April Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 88; last 89)
  • Spain's March PPI 3.4% yr/yr (last -6.9%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.4% (-2.4% this week)
• Germany's DAX: -0.3% (-2.4% this week)
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5% (-2.5% this week)
• France's CAC 40: -0.9% (-3.2% this week)
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.8% (-2.8% this week)
• Spain's IBEX 35: -1.2% (-4.4% this week)