Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a flattish opening this morning after stocks rallied in the previous two sessions this week, leaving the S&P 500 just 0.5% below its all-time high of 7,002.28.

Oil prices have stabilized as the market remains optimistic that the U.S. and Iran will soon negotiate a more lasting ceasefire agreement. President Trump told Fox Business that the war is “very close to being over,” with negotiations set to resume on Thursday. The Associated Press reported that mediators are making progress on extending the ceasefire.

The energy sector and a handful of more defensive pockets of the market are down this week, but the broader market has posted broad gains, with strong leadership from mega-caps and other growth areas boosting the major averages.

Earnings reports from the big banks continue to roll in, with Morgan Stanley (MS 188.30, +4.96, +2.7%) making a nice move higher this morning after topping earnings estimates.

The market will receive a sizable batch of economic data this morning, though none of it is considered to be of high trading impact.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended April 11 increased 1.8%, from a prior decrease of 0.8%.

In corporate news:

• The Trump administration is expected to start accepting claims for tariff refunds next week, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• Anthropic could be valued at $800 billion, according to Bloomberg.
• ASML (ASML 1,495.39, -22.91, -1.5%) beat EPS expectations by €0.55, beat revenue expectations, guided Q2 revenues below consensus, and guided FY26 revenues in-line.
• Bank of America (BAC 53.84, +0.49, +0.9%) beat EPS expectations by $0.10 and beat revenue expectations.
• Morgan Stanley (MS 188.30, +4.96, +2.7%) beat EPS and revenue expectations.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a strong sowing on Wednesday with South Korea's Kospi (+2.1%) nearing its record from late February. Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: UNCH, India's Sensex: +1.6%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%.

In news:

• China's Foreign Ministry vowed to implement countermeasures if the U.S. raises tariffs on China due to the conflict with Iran.
• IPO proceeds in China were up 60% yr/yr in Q1, according to Shanghai Securities News.
• China's President Xi met with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov.
• New Zealand's Prime Minister Luxon said that the country's refined fuel supplies for May are secure.

In economic data:

• Japan's April Reuters Tankan Index 7 (last 18). February Core Machinery Orders 13.6% m/m (expected -1.1%; last -5.5%); 24.7% yr/yr (expected 8.5%; last 13.7%)
• South Korea's March Unemployment Rate 2.7% (last 2.9%). March trade surplus $26.24 bln (expected $25.74 bln; last $15.38 bln). March Imports 13.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 7.5%) and Exports 49.2% yr/yr (expected 48.3%; last 28.7%). March Import Price Index 18.4% yr/yr (last 1.6%) and Export Price Index 28.7% yr/yr (last 11.1%)
• India's March WPI Inflation 3.88% yr/yr (expected 3.00%; last 2.13%). March trade deficit $20.67 bln (expected deficit of $32.75 bln; last deficit of $27.10 bln)

Major European indices are mixed with luxury goods names seeing a continuation of recent weakness after Hermes reported disappointing results. STOXX Europe 600: UNCH, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2%, France's CAC 40: -0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%.

In news:

• Meanwhile, chip fabrication equipment giant ASML reported strong results, raised its guidance, and increased its dividend.
• European Central Bank President Lagarde repeated that the ECB is in a good position to respond to the Iran conflict, but also said it is too early to determine the full impact of the energy price shock.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's February Industrial Production 0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.8%); -0.6% yr/yr (expected -1.0%; last -0.6%)
• France's March CPI 1.0% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.9%)