Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -34.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -140.00. The S&P 500 futures currently trade 34 points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region rebounded from their recent weakness on Thursday, though most markets finished the day well below session highs. China's National People's Congress set its 2026 GDP growth target between 4.5% and 5.0% with CPI expected at 2.0%. China reportedly instructed its top refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline due to the U.S. conflict with Iran. Japan's largest industrial labor union will seek a pay increase of about 6.5% for regular workers during upcoming Spring Wage talks.

• In economic data:
  • Australia's January trade surplus AUD2.631 bln (expected surplus of AUD3.780 bln; last surplus of AUD3.373 bln). January Imports 0.8% m/m (last -1.8%) and Exports -0.9% m/m (last 0.9%)
  • Singapore's January Retail Sales 6.1% m/m (last -2.7%); -0.4% yr/yr (last 2.5%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.9%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.3%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.6%
• India's Sensex: +1.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: +9.6%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%

Major European indices trade in the red. Morgan Stanley expects that the European Central Bank will not cut rates until 2027 unless there is a downside shock to growth. DHL noted that air and ocean freight in the Middle East have been heavily disrupted. Meanwhile, Maersk suspended cargo bookings to and from several Gulf nations. The Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey showed an increase in year-ahead CPI expectations to 3.0% from 2.9% while the three-year outlook was lowered to 2.8% from 2.9%.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's January Retail Sales -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)
  • U.K.'s February Construction PMI 44.5 (expected 47.0; last 46.4)
  • France's January Industrial Production 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%)
  • Italy's January Retail Sales 0.6% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.7%); 2.3% yr/yr (last 1.1%)
  • Spain's January Industrial Production 0.3% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last -0.3%)
  • Swiss February Unemployment Rate 3.0% (expected 2.9%; last 2.9%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%
• Germany's DAX: -0.9%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%
• France's CAC 40:  -0.7%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.5%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%