Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a slightly lower opening this morning after stocks notched their best finish of the week in yesterday's action. Oil prices finally stabilized after several days of sharp increases, while some encouraging economic data provided the backdrop for solid participation in the broader market. Mega-cap tech, which had previously been under pressure this week, was among the standouts, helping the major averages finish firmly higher. 

Oil is making a move higher this morning, which could be somewhat stalling yesterday's enthusiasm. Crude is currently up $1.99 (+2.7%) to $76.65 per barrel after finishing just modestly higher yesterday.

Geopolitical developments in Iran continue to generate headlines, with Reuters reporting this morning that Iran claimed to have hit a U.S. oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, though it has yet to be confirmed. 

On the trade front, The Wall Street Journal reports that a federal trade court judge has ordered the Trump administration to begin refunding more than $130 billion in tariffs collected, though the ruling will be appealed. 

Elsewhere, investors have plenty of economic data to assess this morning, which includes the preliminary Q4 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%) and Unit Labor Cost (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) readings as well as the weekly initial jobless claims (Briefing.com consensus 216K) release at 8:30 a.m. ET. 

In corporate news:

• South Korea warns that Iran war could disrupt chip supplies, according to Reuters. 
• China tells refiners to halt gasoline exports, according to Bloomberg
• Broadcom (AVGO 337.30, +19.77, +6.23) beat EPS expectations by $0.02, reported revenues in-line, guided Q2 revenues above consensus, and authorized a $10 billion share repurchase program. 
• Ciena (CIEN 331.47, -12.08, -3.5%) beat EPS expectations by $0.18, beat revenue expectations, guided Q2 revenues above consensus, and FY26 revenues in-line. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region rebounded from their recent weakness on Thursday, though most markets finished the day well below session highs. Japan's Nikkei: +1.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.6%, India's Sensex: +1.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +9.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%.

In news:

• China's National People's Congress set its 2026 GDP growth target between 4.5% and 5.0% with CPI expected at 2.0%.
• China reportedly instructed its top refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline due to the U.S. conflict with Iran.
• Japan's largest industrial labor union will seek a pay increase of about 6.5% for regular workers during upcoming Spring Wage talks.

In economic data:

• Australia's January trade surplus AUD2.631 bln (expected surplus of AUD3.780 bln; last surplus of AUD3.373 bln). January Imports 0.8% m/m (last -1.8%) and Exports -0.9% m/m (last 0.9%)
• Singapore's January Retail Sales 6.1% m/m (last -2.7%); -0.4% yr/yr (last 2.5%)

Major European indices trade mostly lower. STOXX Europe 600: unch, Germany's DAX: -0.3%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%,

In news:

• Morgan Stanley expects that the European Central Bank will not cut rates until 2027 unless there is a downside shock to growth.
• DHL noted that air and ocean freight in the Middle East have been heavily disrupted.
• Meanwhile, Maersk suspended cargo bookings to and from several Gulf nations.
• The Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey showed an increase in year-ahead CPI expectations to 3.0% from 2.9% while the three-year outlook was lowered to 2.8% from 2.9%.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's January Retail Sales -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)
• U.K.'s February Construction PMI 44.5 (expected 47.0; last 46.4)
• France's January Industrial Production 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%)
• Italy's January Retail Sales 0.6% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.7%); 2.3% yr/yr (last 1.1%)
• Spain's January Industrial Production 0.3% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last -0.3%)
• Swiss February Unemployment Rate 3.0% (expected 2.9%; last 2.9%)