Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 58 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region started the week on a mixed note, alternating between concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has boosted oil prices and a sense of relief that oil prices were held in check over the weekend despite the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil hub. The Trump administration is reportedly working on forging an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, China posted a round of better-than-expected February data for industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment; finance ministers from Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement on defending their currencies from excessive weakness; and President Trump floated the possibility of delaying his March 31 meeting with President Xi. The Bank of Japan is one of 16 central banks due to publish a policy decision this week.

• In economic data:
  • February Chinese Industrial Production 6.3% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 5.2%); February Retail Sales 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 0.9%); February Fixed Asset Investment 1.8% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -3.8%); February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.1%; last 5.1%); February House Prices -3.2% yr/yr (last -3.1%)
  • India February WPI Inflation 2.13% (expected 2.00%; last 1.81%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.5%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
• India's Sensex: +1.3%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.1%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%

Major European indices are coursing through today's trade in a mixed fashion, preoccupied as all other markets are with the Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices and the global economy. The Trump administration is pushing allies to form a military coalition to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.K. is reportedly open to the possibility of sending mine-hunting drones but has shot down the prospect of sending warships. This week will also feature a plethora of central bank policy decisions, including updates from the ECB, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank, all of which will be scrutinized for how the Iran conflict is shaping inflation expectations and policy perspective for decision makers.

• In economic data:
  • U.K.'s Rightmove House Price Index 0.8% m/m (last 0.0%) and -0.2% yr/yr (last 0.0%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%
• Germany's DAX: +0.6%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%
• France's CAC 40: +0.2%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%