Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning following a losing week for equities that saw the major averages post losses wider than 1.0% across the board. 

The weakness was largely tied to a steady increase in the price of oil as the war in Iran continued while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a near standstill. Developments on the geopolitical front are providing the primary catalyst for equity futures this morning. 

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement to come as soon as this week. 

Additionally, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview, said the Iran war will "certainly come to an end in the next few weeks," noting that he thinks the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in the "not-too-distant future," according to ABC News. 

Oil is currently down $1.62 (-1.6%) to $97.09 per barrel after testing the $100 per barrel mark overnight. 

Energy and geopolitical developments continue to dominate headlines, though there are a few other elements in play this week. 

The Fed will issue its decision for the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday, though the market has priced in no change to the fed funds target rate for some time. However, the market will take note of any commentary and updated projections that come from the meeting, as the recent surge in oil prices has diminished the market's rate cut hopes. 

In corporate news:

• The U.S. and China are set to make agreements on agriculture and critical minerals ahead of the presidential summit, according to Reuters.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR 106.50, -0.96, -0.9%) beat EPS expectations by $0.01, reported revenues in-line, and guided Q1 and FY27 EPS and revenues in-line. 
• Meta (META 631.13, +17.42, +2.8%) is planning large layoffs amid high costs for artificial intelligence, according to Reuters.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 182.63, +2.38, +1.3%) is aiming to introduce a new artificial intelligence "inference" chip at its GTC event this week, according to Financial Times. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region started the week on a mixed note, alternating between concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has boosted oil prices and a sense of relief that oil prices were held in check over the weekend despite the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil hub. Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%, India's Sensex: +1.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%.

In news:

• The Trump administration is reportedly working on forging an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Separately, China posted a round of better-than-expected February data for industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment; finance ministers from Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement on defending their currencies from excessive weakness; and President Trump floated the possibility of delaying his March 31 meeting with President Xi.
• The Bank of Japan is one of 16 central banks due to publish a policy decision this week.

In economic data:

• February Chinese Industrial Production 6.3% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 5.2%); February Retail Sales 2.8% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 0.9%); February Fixed Asset Investment 1.8% yr/yr (expected -5.0%; last -3.8%); February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.1%; last 5.1%); February House Prices -3.2% yr/yr (last -3.1%)
• India February WPI Inflation 2.13% (expected 2.00%; last 1.81%)

Major European indices are coursing through today's trade in a mixed fashion, preoccupied as all other markets are with the Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices and the global economy. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%, Germany's DAX: +0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%, France's CAC 40: +0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.

In news:

• he Trump administration is pushing allies to form a military coalition to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The U.K. is reportedly open to the possibility of sending mine-hunting drones but has shot down the prospect of sending warships.
• This week will also feature a plethora of central bank policy decisions, including updates from the ECB, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank, all of which will be scrutinized for how the Iran conflict is shaping inflation expectations and policy perspective for decision makers.

In economic data:

• U.K.'s Rightmove House Price Index 0.8% m/m (last 0.0%) and -0.2% yr/yr (last 0.0%)