Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 33 points above fair value

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a broadly lower note. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said that she is in close contact with her counterparts in the U.S. after the Japanese yen hit its lowest level against the dollar since July 2024. U.S. Trade Representative Greer will join Treasury Secretary Bessent for next week's meetings with China's Vice Premier He. India is seeing urea from China while South Korea will limit exports of naphtha products.

• In economic data:
  • China's February New Loans CNY900.0 bln (last CNY4.71 trln) and total social financing CNY2.38 trln (last CNY7.22 trln)
  • Hong Kong's Q4 Industrial Production 5.7% yr/yr (last 5.4%)
  • New Zealand's February Business PMI 55.0 (expected 55.1). January External Migration & Visitors 4.1% yr/yr (last 1.6%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.2% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.0% 
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
• India's Sensex: -1.9% 
• South Korea's Kospi: -1.7% 
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

Major European indices are mostly higher this morning. The U.K. reported no growth for January, inviting concerns about potential stagflation that would prevent the Bank of England from cutting rates. Germany's Chemicals Industry Association suspended all forecasts for the year, warning that the sector is facing mounting disruptions. The EU Commission released a statement assuring that its gas storage and oil stocks remain stable.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's January Industrial Production -1.5% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -0.6%); -1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.4%; last 2.2%)
  • Germany's February WPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.9%); 1.2% yr/yr (last 1.2%)
  • U.K.'s January GDP 0.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%); 0.8% yr/yr (expected 0.9%; last 0.7%). January Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.9%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.5%). January Manufacturing Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 0.5%). January Construction Output 0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.5%); -0.2% yr/yr (expected -0.1%; last -0.3%). January trade deficit GBP14.45 bln (expected deficit of GBP22.20 bln; last deficit of GBP10.99 bln)
  • France's February CPI 0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%; last -0.4%); 1.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.4%)
  • Italy's January Industrial Production -0.6% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.5%); -0.6% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 2.7%)
  • Spain's February CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last -0.4%); 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.3%). February Core CPI 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.6%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%
• Germany's DAX: +0.3% 
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2%
• France's CAC 40: UNCH
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.5% 
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%