Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening this morning following a choppy session for stocks that was driven by some major swings in the price of oil. The major averages opened to losses wider than 1.0% as oil surged past $100 per barrel, though stocks rallied late in the session as oil prices plunged after President Trump told CBS News that the war in Iran could be over soon. 

President Trump doubled down on his rhetoric in an address yesterday evening, telling reporters that U.S. military operations in Iran are well ahead of schedule and that the war is nearly complete. The president also threatened renewed action against Iran if it does anything to stop the flow of oil from the region. 

Currently, oil is down $5.02 (-5.3%) to $89.75 per barrel. 

On a related note, G7 energy ministers will discuss a potential global stockpile release this morning. 

Energy and geopolitical developments largely dominated headlines yesterday as swings in oil prices dictated price action. Corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side this morning, though there are still a few earnings reports in the mix. 

The market will receive just a few economic data releases today, including February Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 3.88 million). The February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index contracted to 98.8 (Briefing.com consensus 99.5) from a prior reading of 99.3. 

Key inflation readings lie ahead, with the market set to receive the February CPI readings (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) tomorrow, as well as the January PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) on Friday.

In corporate news:

• SpaceX is considering a Nasdaq listing, according to Reuters. 
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 22.10, +0.29, +1.3%) beat EPS expectations by $0.06 and reported revenues in-line. The company guided Q2 EPS in-line with revenues above consensus and raised its FY26 EPS guidance while reaffirming FY26 revenue guidance.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 182.34, -0.31, -0.2%) is aiming to launch an open-source AI agent platform, according to Wired. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region bounced on Tuesday with South Korea's Kospi (+5.4%) reclaiming the bulk of its loss from Monday. Japan's Nikkei: +2.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.2%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%, India's Sensex: +0.8%. South Korea's Kospi: +5.4%. Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.1%.

In news:

• China reported a smaller-than-expected trade surplus for February, though exports jumped 39.6% yr/yr.
• Exports to the U.S. were down almost 17% while exports to the EU and Southeast Asia grew 20%.
• Japan's final GDP report for Q4 beat expectations with help from strong business spending while South Korea's GDP contracted in Q4.

In economic data:

• China's February trade surplus $90.98 bln (expected surplus of $177.4 bln; last surplus of $114.1 bln). February Imports 13.8% yr/yr (expected 6.3%; last 5.7%) and Exports 39.6% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 6.6%)
• Japan's Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last -0.6%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last -2.3%). Q4 GDP Price Index 3.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). January Household Spending -2.5% m/m (expected 0.8%; last -2.2%); -1.0% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last -2.6%). February Machine Tool Orders 24.2% yr/yr (expected 25.3%; last 10.6%)
• South Korea's Q1 GDP -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last 1.3%); 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.8%)
• Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.2% m/m (last -2.6%) February NAB Business Confidence -1 (last 4) and February NAB Business Survey 7 (last 7). January Building Approvals -7.2% m/m, as expected (last -14.9%); -15.7% yr/yr (expected 8.1%; last 0.4%). January Private House Approvals 1.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%)

Major European indices trade in the green, recovering some of their recent losses with help from a pullback in the price of oil. STOXX Europe 600: +1.8%, Germany's DAX: +2.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.4%, France's CAC 40: +1.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +2.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +2.3%.

In news:

• G7 officials will hold another call today, looking to agree on a coordinated oil reserve release.
• British homebuilder Persimmon issued upbeat deliveries guidance for the year while Renault announced its updated margin targets.
• Volkswagen missed Q4 expectations and announced job cuts.
• European Central Bank policymaker Muller said that the likelihood of a rate hike has increased, but there is no need to rush to a decision.

In economic data:

• Germany's January trade surplus EUR21.2 bln (expected surplus of EUR15.4 bln; last surplus of EUR17.4 bln). January Imports -5.9% m/m (last 1.3%) and Exports -2.3% m/m (last 3.9%)
• France's January trade deficit EUR1.8 bln (expected deficit of EUR5.2 bln; last deficit of EUR4.3 bln). January Current Account surplus EUR2.1 bln (last surplus of EUR100 mln)