Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market weathered a fair amount of volatility today amid a whirlwind of macro developments, with gains across the S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), and DJIA (+0.5%) securing a higher week-to-date finish for the group. Notably, the S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average of 6,894.93. 

Stocks opened weaker following a somewhat disappointing batch of economic data before the open. The advance reading of Q4 GDP, which showed a disappointing combination of headline growth (1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) and a hotter-than-expected Chain Deflator (3.7%; Briefing.com consensus 3.3%). 

Additionally, the December PCE Price Index (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) came in a touch hotter than expected, and while the core figure (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) was in line with expectations, the year-over-year PCE Price Index remains elevated at 3.0%, which could temper the market's not-so-near-term rate cut expectations. 

Shortly after the open, several sectors surged higher following the Supreme Court's ruling against President Trump's sweeping IEEPA tariffs. The enthusiasm was somewhat tempered as President Trump stated his intention to sign an order today to impose a global tariff of 10%, under Section 122, which allows President Trump to impose up to a 15% global tariff for 150 days. The processing of potential refunds will likely be a messy process that is to be handled by the lower courts. 

While there was certainly some choppy action throughout the midday hours, stocks stabilized in the afternoon, logging a mostly higher finish. 

Nine S&P 500 sectors captured gains, with several notable gains in the mix. 

The communication services sector (+2.7%) notched the widest gain, supported by solid gains across its largest components, Alphabet (GOOG 314.90, +11.34, +3.74%) and Meta Platforms (META 655.66, +10.88, +1.69%). The Wall Street Journal reported that Alphabet is weighing financial strategies to boost AI chip ecosystem and challenge NVIDIA (NVDA 189.82, +1.92, +1.02%). 

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.3%) also outperformed, though it had by far the choppiest session, shooting higher after the tariff ruling before conceding the entirety of its gains that it slowly reclaimed. 

Amazon (AMZN 210.11, +5.25, +2.56%) was another mega-cap standout, unsurprisingly supported by the tariff ruling given its substantial import volume. 

eBay (EBAY 88.07, +3.32, +3.92%) and Garmin (GRMN 248.91, +9.11, +3.80%) added to recent post-earnings strength. 

NIKE (NKE 65.42, -0.19, -0.29%) had a particularly volatile session, trading both 3% above and below its baseline before logging a modest loss. 

Gains elsewhere were relatively tame. The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.6%) was a winner despite renewed weakness in software names that saw the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) close 1.3% lower. Semiconductors had a solid day, and NVIDIA and Apple (AAPL 264.58, +4.00, +1.54%) both contributed strength amid a strong day for mega-caps. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.9% higher. 

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-0.7%) lagged as the recent surge in oil prices saw a modest stalling in momentum today despite all signs still pointing to conflict between the U.S. and Iran.  Crude oil futures settled today's session $0.07 higher (+0.1%) at $66.49 per barrel. 

The defensive health care sector (-0.3%) also finished modestly lower. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.1%) logged a slight loss, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.6%) captured a solid gain. 

Overall, the market showed resilience in the face of policy and inflation crosscurrents, finishing the week in a constructive fashion. Importantly, the week’s advance snapped a five-week losing streak for the Nasdaq Composite, offering a welcome shift in near-term momentum for the growth-heavy index ahead of NVIDIA's earnings release next week. 

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week with modest losses in most tenors, keeping yields above February lows that were reached on Tuesday. The 2-year note yield settled up one basis point to 3.48% (+7 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.09% (+3 basis points this week). 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +7.3% YTD
• DJIA: +3.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +0.9% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• December Personal Income 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%, December Personal Spending 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%, December PCE Prices 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%, December PCE Prices - Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report, other than the fact that spending outpaced income in December, is that the core PCE Price Index sported a 3-handle on a year-over-year basis. This is a key inflation gauge for the Fed, and it doesn't hold the key to a near-term rate cut.
• Q4 GDP-Adv. 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%); Prior 4.4%, Q4 Chain Deflator-Adv. 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%); Prior 3.8%
  • The key takeaway from the report was the combination of weak growth and stubbornly high inflation in the fourth quarter, both of which run afoul of a market narrative that has been concentrated on stronger growth and lower inflation.
• February S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Prelim 51.2; Prior 52.4
• February S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Prelim 52.3; Prior 52.7
• December New Home Sales 745K (Briefing.com consensus 714K); Prior 758K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakest growth was concentrated in the nation's largest new home market--the South--underscoring the prevailing weakness in the housing market that has coincided with affordability constraints driven by higher prices and higher mortgage rates.
• February Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 56.6 (Briefing.com consensus 57.3); Prior 57.3
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there were stark differences in sentiment among consumers with stock holdings (large increase in sentiment) and consumers without stock holdings (a decline in sentiment).