Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after stocks finished mostly lower yesterday in reaction to a slate of mega-cap earnings. 

Apple (AAPL 255.76, -2.52, -1.0%) posted solid earnings report after the close yesterday, but trades modestly lower as investors weigh headwinds related to rising memory costs and chip availability. 

President Trump confirmed he will nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair candidate. Futures are well off their earlier lows after the announcement, and treasuries have remained steady. 

Precious metals prices are facing a sharp pullback this morning after an impressive run to record highs. Gold futures are currently down around 4%, while silver is down around 11%. 

Meanwhile, oil is modestly lower despite The New York Times reporting that President Trump is considering new military options against Iran to target nuclear and missile facilities.

In Washington, the White House & Democrats have reached a deal to fund most of the government through September 30 and the DHS through February 13. The Senate is hoping to vote today after some disagreements last night that prevented a vote. The House is expected to vote Monday, which means the government shutdown will occur over the weekend, according to Politico. 

On the data front, the market will receive the December PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) readings today as the market continues to work through a backlog of economic data. 

In corporate news:

• Apple (AAPL 255.76, -2.52, -1.0%) beat EPS expectations by $0.17 and beat revenue expectations. iPhone revenues were well above estimates, and China revenues surged 38%. 
• China approved DeepSeek to purchase NVIDIA (NVDA 190.56, -1.95, -1.0%) H200 chips, according to Reuters. 
• OpenAI is planning an IPO in Q4, according to The Wall Street Journal. 
• Sandisk (SNDK 663.00, +123.70, +22.9%) beat EPS estimates by $2.58, beat revenue expectations, and guided Q3 EPS above consensus, with revenues above consensus. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note, while South Korea's Kospi (+0.1%) bucked the trend, inching up to a fresh record high. Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.0%, India's Sensex: -0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.8%.

In news:

• South Korea's trade officials met with their U.S. counterparts in Washington yesterday, but talks will continue into today.
• Japan sold 2-yr JGBs to good demand with yield dipping after the auction.
• Japan's Tokyo CPI decelerated to 1.5% yr/yr in January, representing the first below-target (2.0%) reading since October 2024.
• The CEO of Indonesia's IDX exchange resigned after this week's volatility that followed MSCI's flagging of Indonesia's stocks for a potential downgrade.
• Fitch affirmed South Korea's AA- rating with a Stable outlook.

In economic data:

• Japan's January Tokyo CPI 1.5% yr/yr (last 2.0%) and January Tokyo Core CPI 2.0% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; last 2.3%). December Retail Sales -0.9% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 1.1%) and December Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected -0.4%; last -2.7%). December jobs/applications ratio 1.19 (expected 1.18; last 1.18) and December Unemployment Rate 2.6%, as expected (last 2.6%). December Housing Starts -1.3% yr/yr (expected -4.5%; last -8.5%) and Construction Orders 20.2% yr/yr (last 9.5%)
• South Korea's December Retail Sales 0.9% m/m (last -3.3%). December Industrial Production 1.7% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%); -0.3% yr/yr (expected -2.1%; last -1.4%)
• Hong Kong's Q4 GDP 1.0% qtr/qtr (last 0.7%); 3.8% yr/yr (last 3.8%)
• Australia's Q4 PPI 0.8% qtr/qtr (expected 1.1%; last 1.0%); 3.5% yr/yr (last 3.5%). December Private Sector Credit 0.8% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%) and Housing Credit 0.7% m/m (last 0.6%)
• Singapore's December Bank Lending SGD886.1 bln (last SGD873.1 bln)

Major European indices trade in the green with banks contributing to the strength. STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%, Germany's DAX: +0.9%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%, France's CAC 40: +0.7%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.9%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.7%.

In news:

• Appliance manufacturer Electrolux reported strong results for Q4 with help from cost reductions and strong cash flow.
• Adidas reported record revenue for 2025.
• Germany's flash CPI for January will be released at 8:00 ET and it is expected to show no month-over-month change with the year-over-year rate accelerating to 2.0% from 1.8% in December.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.4%). December Unemployment Rate 6.2% (expected 6.3%; last 6.3%)
• Germany's December Import Price Index -0.1% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 0.5%); -2.3% yr/yr (expected -2.6%; last -1.9%). January Unemployment Change 0 (expected 4,000; last 3,000) and January Unemployment Rate 6.3%, as expected (last 6.3%). Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%)
• U.K.'s December Mortgage Approvals 61,010 (expected 65,000; last 64,070) and Mortgage Lending GBP4.60 bln (expected GBP4.50 bln; last GBP4.59 bln). December Net Lending to Individuals GBP6.10 bln, as expected (last GBP6.60 bln)
• France's Q4 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.5%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 0.9%). December PPI 0.2% m/m (last 2.8%); -2.0% yr/yr (last -1.5%). Q4 nonfarm payrolls -0.1% qtr/qtr (last 0.0%)
• Italy's Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%); 0.8% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%). December Unemployment Rate 5.6% (expected 5.8%; last 5.6%). December PPI -0.7% m/m (last 1.0%); -1.4% yr/yr (last -0.2%)
• Spain's January CPI -0.4% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.3%); 2.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%). January Core CPI 2.6% yr/yr (last 2.6%). Q4 GDP 0.8% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%); 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 2.8%). November Current Account surplus EUR210 mln (last surplus of EUR7.18 bln)
• Swiss January KOF Leading Indicators 102.5 (expected 103.1; last 103.6)