Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a higher open this morning on the heels of yesterday's mixed action surrounding the FOMC's 25-basis point rate cut and updated projections.

The market hit a pocket of volatility following the Fed's announcement, as investors weighed a Summary of Economic Projections that showed 10 of 19 participants expecting two or more rate cuts this year, with the other nine anticipating fewer than two. Still, the probability of additional cuts this year increased according to the CME FedWatch tool and has held steady so far this morning. 

After being a drag on the market yesterday, large tech names are driving the gains in futures this morning, with investors seemingly enthused by the strong probability of further rate cuts in October and December. 

There are also some stock-specific catalysts behind the move this morning, with Intel (INTC 31.50, +6.60, +26.5%) up tremendously on news that NVIDIA (NVDA 175.56, +5.27, +3.1%) will invest $5 billion in Intel's common stock. 

In Washington, Politico reports that the House has passed a procedural measure to fund the government through November 21, with a final vote expected tomorrow. 

In corporate news:

• China has ended its antitrust investigation into Alphabet (GOOG 252.60, +2.75, +1.1%), according to The Financial Times. 
• Apple (AAPL 239.40, +0.41, +0.17) is reportedly exploring the possibility of a foldable iPhone, a development that the company hopes could boost sales by 10% next year, according to Nikkei. 
• Darden Restaurants (DRI 196.00, -12.79, -6.1%) missed EPS expectations by $0.03, reported revenues in-line, and guided FY26 revenues in-line. 
• Intel (INTC 31.50, +6.60, +26.5%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 175.56, +5.27, +3.1%) announced a collaboration to develop AI infrastructure and personal computing products, with NVIDIA agreeing to invest $5 billion in Intel's common stock. 
• Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 62.48, +4.28, +7.4%) trades higher after it reported that Ozempic reduces the risk of heart attack, stroke and death by 23% compared to dulaglutide in the first head-to-head real-world study.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.2%, India's Sensex: +0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%.

In news:

• New Zealand's Q2 GDP report showed a bigger-than-expected contraction while Australia lost jobs in August.
• Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to make two rate cuts before the end of the year.
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the FOMC rate cut with a 25-basis point cut of its own, as expected.

In economic data: 

• Japan's July Core Machinery Orders -4.6% m/m (expected -1.8%; last 3.0%); 4.9% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 7.6%)
• Australia's August Employment Change -5,400 (expected 21,200; last 26,500) and full Employment Change -40,900 (last 63,600). August Unemployment Rate 4.2%, as expected (last 4.2%) and August Participation Rate 66.8% (expected 67.0%; last 67.0%)
• New Zealand's Q2 GDP -0.9% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last 0.9%); -0.6% yr/yr (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%)

Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%, Germany's DAX: +1.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3%, France's CAC 40: +1.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.

In news:

• The Bank of England voted 7-2 in favor of keeping its bank rate at 4.00%. Elsewhere, Norges Bank lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%, as expected, and forecast one rate cut per year over the next three years.
• President Trump will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer today.
• Germany's debt office confirmed that it plans to sell an additional EUR15 bln worth of debt in Q4.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's July Current Account surplus EUR27.7 bln (expected surplus of EUR34.6 bln; last surplus of EUR35.8 bln). July Construction Output 0.48% m/m (last -0.66%)
• Swiss August trade surplus CHF4.009 bln (expected CHF5.220 bln; last CHF4.619 bln)