Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday. China reported underwhelming growth figures for August with Industrial Production growth (5.2% yr/yr) decelerating to its slowest pace of the year. China's National Bureau of Statistics described the external environment as "very severe." China launched two investigations into U.S. trade policy ahead of tomorrow's planned meeting in Spain, according to Reuters.

• In economic data:
  • China's August House Prices -2.5% yr/yr (last -2.8%). August Retail Sales 3.4% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 3.7%), August Industrial Production 5.2% yr/yr (expected 5.7%; last 5.7%); 6.2% YTD (last 6.3%). August Fixed Asset Investment 0.5% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.6%), and August Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.2%; last 5.2%)
  • South Korea's August trade surplus $6.51 bln, as expected (last surplus of $9.08 bln). August Imports -4.1% yr/yr (expected -4.0%; last 3.3%) and Exports 1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 4.3%)
  • Hong Kong's Q2 Industrial Production 0.8% yr/yr (last 0.7%) and Q2 PPI 4.0% yr/yr (last 4.8%)
  • India's August WPI Inflation 0.52% yr/yr (expected 0.30%; last -0.58%). August trade deficit $26.49 bln (last deficit of $27.35 bln)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: HOLIDAY
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%
• India's Sensex: -0.2%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note. European Central Bank policymaker Kazimir said that rates are in a good place and there is no need to react to "tiny deviations" from target. Italy's finance ministry expects 0.6% growth in 2025, followed by 0.8% growth in 2026. There was some ratings action in the region, as Fitch lowered France's credit rating to A+ from AA- and revised the outlook to Stable from Negative due to high debt, a weak fiscal standing, and ongoing political uncertainty. Separately, Fitch raised Portugal's rating to A from A- and revised the outlook to Stable from Positive while Standard & Poor's raised Spain's rating to A+ from A with a Stable outlook.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's July trade surplus EUR12.4 bln (expected EUR11.7 bln; last EUR8.0 bln)
  • Germany's August WPI -0.6% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.1%); 0.7% yr/yr (last 0.5%)
  • Italy's July trade surplus EUR7.908 bln (expected surplus of EUR5.500 bln; last surplus of EUR5.384 bln)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
• Germany's DAX: +0.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH
• France's CAC 40: +1.3%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.1%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%