Stock Market Update

Equity futures are mixed this morning following yesterday's advance that saw the S&P 500 capture a fresh intraday record (6,487.03) and closing high (6,481.40).

Headlines are quiet this morning, though much of the market's focus remains on NVIDIA's (NVDA) earnings report, which beat EPS and revenue expectations but saw data center revenue come in weaker than expected, causing the stock to dip in after-hours trading. 

On the trade front, Bloomberg reports that Mexico will increase tariffs on China following demands from President Trump. 

Reuters reports that Japan's trade representative has cancelled his trip to the U.S., which pushes back negotiations around the proposed $550 billion investment package offered by the Japanese government to secure a lower tariff rate. 

There are no developments around monetary policy this morning, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting holding steady at 82.7%.

The market will hear from Fed Governor Christopher Waller at 6:00 PM ET, with tomorrow's PCE report the next barometer of inflation.

Today, the market will receive the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 AM ET (with recent softness in the labor market garnering some attention), the second estimate for Q2 GDP at the same time, and pending home sales data at 10:00 AM ET.

In corporate news:

• Best Buy (BBY 74.71, -0.74, -1.0%) beat EPS expectations by $0.07, beat revenue expectations, and reaffirmed FY26 EPS, revenues, and comparable sales guidance. 
• Dollar General (DG 118.35, +7.15, +6.4%) beat EPS expectations by $0.28, reported revenues in-line, and raised FY26 EPS above consensus. 
• NVIDIA (NVDA 178.62, -2.98, -1.7%) beats EPS expectations by $0.04, beats revenue expectations, and guides Q3 revenues in-line. The Data Center segment revenue grew 56% year-over-year and 5% sequentially to $41.1 billion, which was less than expected. There were no H20 chip sales to China-based customers in Q2, but the company benefitted from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory from approximately $650 million in unrestricted H20 sales to a customer outside of China. The company has not assumed any H20 sales to China in the Q3 outlook. 
• Snowflake (SNOW 227.70, +27.31, +13.6%) beat EPS expectations by $0.08 and beat revenue expectations, with product revenue growing 32% year-over-year. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.1%, India's Sensex: -0.9%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%. 

In news:

• Japan's largest trading firms outperformed after Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings in Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui Corp.
• Toyota's July global sales hit a record with help from a jump in exports ahead of the implementation of tariffs.
• Japan's top trade negotiator postponed his trip to Washington until next week.
• The Bank of Korea left its policy rate at 2.50%, as expected.

In economic data:

• India's July Industrial Production 3.5% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 1.5%) and July Manufacturing Output 5.4% m/m (last 3.9%)
• Australia's Q2 Building Capital Expenditure 0.2% qtr/qtr (last 1.0%), Q2 Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure 0.3% qtr/qtr (last -1.7%), and Private New Capital Expenditure 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.8%; last -0.2%)
• New Zealand's August ANZ Business Confidence 49.7 (last 47.8)

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while the U.K.'s FTSE (-0.5%) lags. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: -0.3%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: UNCH, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%.

In news:

• Expectations are on the rise for French Prime Minister Bayrou to lose his confidence vote that is scheduled for September 8.
• French Finance Minister Lombard said that the public deficit for 2025 will remain on target and he does not expect a financial crisis.

In economic data: 

• Eurozone's July Private Sector Loans 2.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.2%) and Loans to nonfinancials 2.8% yr/yr (last 2.7%). August Business and Consumer Survey 95.2 (expected 96.0; last 95.7)
• Italy's August Business Confidence 87.4 (expected 87.2; last 87.8) and Consumer Confidence 96.2 (expected 96.6; last 97.2). July Industrial Sales 1.2% m/m (last -2.1%); 0.3% yr/yr (last -1.8%)
• Swiss Q2 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.4%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.4%; last 1.8%)