Stock Market Update

Equity futures are higher this morning amid a wave of economic data and the earnings reports of Microsoft (MSFT 556.68, +43.44, +8.5%) and Meta Platforms (META 773.55, +78.34, +11.3%) after yesterday's close. 

Personal income increased 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.4% decline in May; personal spending increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following an upwardly revised unchanged reading (from -0.1%) in May; the PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and 2.6% yr/yr (vs 2.4% in May); and the core-PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and 2.8% yr/yr (vs 2.8% in May).

The key takeaway from the report is that real personal spending was up a modest 0.1% in June. That isn't much, although it does show that consumers continue to have the capacity to spend in the face of higher prices.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 increased by 1,000 to 218,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 220,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were unchanged at 1.946 million.

The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that employers still remain reluctant to lay off employees, but employees that do get laid off are facing a tougher time finding a new job.

The Q2 Employment Cost Index increased 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.8%) for the 3-month period ending in June 2025, with wages and salaries up 1.0% and benefit costs up 0.7%.

The key takeaway from the report is that compensation costs have moderated, which could serve to lower some of the inflation temperature at the Fed.