Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade six points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note. A massive earthquake in the Pacific prompted tsunami warnings in China, Japan, and Hawaii. South Korean officials have arrived in Washington to discuss trade ahead of the August 1 deadline. Separately, President Trump said that India's tariff rate may end up between 20% and 25%.

• In economic data:
  • Singapore's Q2 Unemployment Rate 2.1% (last 2.0%)
  • Australia's Q2 CPI 0.7% qtr/qtr (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%); 2.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.4%). June CPI Indicator 1.9% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.1%)
  • New Zealand's July ANZ Business Confidence 47.8 (last 46.3)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%
• India's Sensex: +0.2%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%

Major European indices are mixed. The market received a big batch of data today, including slightly better-than-expected Q2 GDP (0.1%; expected 0.0%) for the eurozone and France (0.3%; expected 0.1%) while Germany reported a 0.1% contraction. Germany's government approved a budget for 2026. Adidas and Mercedes trade lower after disappointing results.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's flash Q2 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 0.6%); 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.5%). July Business and Consumer Survey 95.8 (expected 94.5; last 94.2)
  • Germany's June Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 4.9% yr/yr (last 4.6%). Flash Q2 GDP -0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.4%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%)
  • France's flash Q2 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.1%); 0.7% yr/yr (last 0.6%). June Consumer Spending 0.6% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.1%) o Italy's flash Q2 GDP -0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%). May Industrial Sales -2.2% m/m (last 1.4%); -1.8% yr/yr (last 0.9%)
  • Spain's July CPI -0.1% m/m (last 0.7%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 2.3%). July Core CPI 2.3% yr/yr (last 2.2%). July Business Confidence -4.9 (last -5.2)
  • Swiss July KOF Leading Indicators 101.1 (expected 97.9; last 96.3). July ZEW Expectations 2.4 (last -2.1)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%
• Germany's DAX: +0.2%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2%
• France's CAC 40: +0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%