Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market hovers above its opening lows with the S&P 500 dow 0.1%. 

Senate majority Leader John Thune has just told reporters that he believes a deal is in place to pass the large reconciliation bill. The announcement comes after the Senate set a new record for the longest vote-a-rama, with over 45 amendment votes taking place.

In other macro news, Fed Chair Powell announced from a European Central Bank forum in Portugal that the Fed would have cut rates by this point if it were not for the size of tariffs. 

In economic news,The June ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 49.0% in June (Briefing.com consensus 48.8%) from 48.5% in May. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the June reading suggests that activity in the manufacturing sector contracted at a slightly slower pace than the prior month.

The key takeaway from the report is that it has more of a stagflation aura about it (the new orders index and employment index both contracted at a faster pace, while the prices index increased at a faster pace) that will make the Fed's policy deliberations more challenging and the market's view of the Fed's thinking more frustrating.