Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hit a record high today, and it also achieved a record closing high. The bulls found more calls to action early following a report that the U.S. and China had confirmed their trade framework agreement that should increase rare earth exports from China and relax restrictions on exports of technology products to China and that the U.S. could be on the cusp of announcing 10 trade deals.

That news preceded a personal income and spending report for May that was short on both income and spending and long on inflation, with both the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index ticking higher on a year-over-year basis. Notwithstanding a bit of stagflation aura in that combination, the market looked past the report and traded higher, riding trend momentum and a big gain in Dow component NIKE (NKE 72.04, +9.50, +15.19%) following its earnings report.

It also had continued sponsorship from the mega-cap cohort, which pushed the S&P 500 to its session high of 6,187.68, up 0.8%, during the New York lunch hour. That gain disappeared entirely in the afternoon trade after President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is terminating its discussions with Canada due to its 400% tariff on dairy products and digital services tax. He then added that, "We will let Canada know the tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America."

This update triggered some broad-based selling, ostensibly because of concerns about tariff inflation and the specter of other countries facing higher tariff rates when the pause on reciprocal tariff rates expires July 9. The Treasury market seemed to reflect those concerns, as the inflation-sensitive 10-yr note saw its yield move from 4.24% to 4.29%.

True to form, though, the stock market regrouped and spent the final hour of trading riding a wave of buy-the-dip interest that took the S&P 500 from 6,132.35 to its closing level of 6,173.07, which now stands as the new record closing high.

Just as most stocks were part of the selloff, most stocks were part of the closing rebound effort. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed the day higher, led by the consumer discretionary (+1.8%), communication services (+1.5%), and industrials (+1.0%) sectors. The only sectors to close lower were health care (-0.2%) and energy (-0.5%).

Today's session transpired against a backdrop of negotiations in the Senate over the "One Big, Beautiful Bill." Bloomberg reported that Senate Republicans reached a deal to raise the SALT cap to $40,000 for a five-year period, but it was also noted that it is unclear if enough House GOP members will accept this deal. CNBC reported separately that the Senate is hoping to vote on the bill this weekend, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CNBC interview that there is a very good chance of the bill making it to the president's desk by July 4.

• S&P 500: +5.0% YTD
• Nasdaq: +5.0% YTD
• DJIA: +3.0% YTD
• S&P 400: -0.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: -2.6% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Personal income declined 0.4% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.8%) in April. Personal spending declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in April. Real personal spending declined 0.3%, which will be a drag on Q2 GDP forecasts. The PCE Price Index increased 0.1% month-over-month, as expected, but the core-PCE Price Index jumped 0.2% month-over-month, which was higher than expected (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%). Those moves left the PCE Price Index up 2.3% year-over-year, versus 2.2% in April, and the core-PCE Price Index up 2.7% year-over-year, versus 2.6% in April.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it has a stagflation aura about it, meaning it is a poor report for the growth outlook and a poor report for the inflation trend. That leaves the Fed between a rock and a hard policy place, yet given the Fed's attention to inflation concerns at this juncture, it seems like a report that will keep the Fed reluctant to cut rates at its July FOMC meeting.
• The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June edged up to 60.7 (Briefing.com consensus 60.5) from the preliminary reading of 60.5. The final reading for May was 52.2. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 68.2.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the June survey showed overall improvement in current sentiment, aided by an improved view of personal finances, business conditions, and the inflation outlook that followed the pause on the reciprocal tariff rates (which is due to expire July 9) and the ensuing stock market rally.