Stock Market Update

The stock market is on track for a sharply higher start with futures on the S&P 500 trading 43 points above fair value, emboldened by news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The optimism is persisting even though both sides violated the ceasefire shortly after implementation. President Trump spoke this morning, calling on both sides to stop hostilities.

The higher start will lift the S&P 500 to its best level since late February with its record high (6147) looming above.

Crude oil has seen a continuation of yesterday's weakness, falling nearly 4.0% to $66/bbl, while Treasuries have faced some early pressure, sending the 10-yr yield higher by four basis points to 4.36%.

The earnings flow since yesterday's close has been light, but it is worth noting that KB Home (KBH 51.91, -1.41, -2.6%) is on the defensive as lowered FY25 housing revenue, average selling price, and profit margin guidance mask a Q2 beat.

Economic data released this morning included a widening in the Current Account deficit (to $450.2 bln from $312.0 bln) and below-consensus FHFA Housing Price Index (-0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.0%) and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (3.4%; Briefing.com consensus 4.1%).

Later this morning, the market will receive the Consumer Confidence report for June (Briefing.com consensus 99.0; prior 98.0) at 10:00 ET.