Stock Market Update

The stock market is on course for a modestly higher start with futures on the S&P 500 trading 13 points above fair value.

The early indication points to a subdued start after yesterday's holiday closure. Geopolitical concerns dominated the conversation earlier this week, but they are now moving to the backburner after President Trump said that he will decide over the next two weeks whether to strike Iran or continue negotiations.

Given yesterday's closure, the market is likely to see reduced participation today as some investors take the opportunity to extend their weekend.

Today's economic data will be limited to the 8:30 ET release of June Philadelphia Fed survey (Briefing.com consensus 0.3; prior -4.0), followed by May Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -1.0%) at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries are on course for a lower start with the 10-yr yield rising three basis points to 4.43%.

In U.S. corporate news:

• Accenture (ACN 292.50, -13.88, -4.5%): company beat Q3 expectations, issued above-consensus EPS guidance for FY25, and raised its dividend by 15%.
• Darden Restaurants (DRI 232.00, +9.25, +4.2%): company beat Q4 EPS expectations, issued below-consensus guidance for FY26, and raised its dividend by 7.1%.
• CarMax (KMX 71.14, +6.81, +10.6%): company beat Q1 EPS expectations.
• GMS (GMS 103.00, +21.99, +27.1%): company received a proposal to be acquired by QXO (QXO 22.60, +0.10, +0.4%) for $95.20/share in cash.

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Asian markets ended the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei -0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1.3%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • China's May FDI -13.2% YTD (last -10.9%)
    • Japan's May National CPI 0.3% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.6%). National Core CPI 3.7% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; last 3.5%)
    • South Korea's May PPI -0.4% m/m (last -0.2%); 0.3% yr/yr (last 0.8%)
    • Hong Kong's May CPI -0.3% m/m (last -0.1%); 1.9% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 2.0%)
• Major European indices are on track for a higher finish for the week. Germany's DAX +1.2%, U.K.'s FTSE +0.4%, France's CAC +0.6%.
  • In economic data:
    • Germany's May PPI -0.2% m/m (expected -0.3%; last -0.6%); -1.2% yr/yr, as expected (last -0.9%)
    • U.K.'s May Retail Sales -2.7% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.3%); -1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 5.0%). May Core Retail Sales -2.8% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.4%); -1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 5.2%). May Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP17.69 bln (expected GBP17.90 bln; last GBP20.05 bln)
    • France's June Business Survey 96 (expected 97; last 97)
  • In news:
    • The Bank of England announced its latest policy decision yesterday, choosing to leave its bank rate unchanged at 4.25%, which was expected.
    • In its latest Economic Bulletin, the European Central Bank highlighted the complexity of transatlantic trade, noting that nearly a third of the eurozone's goods surplus with the US is generated by American-owned firms, complicating the narrative around recent tariff disputes.
    • The European Investment Bank announced a record EUR100 billion financing ceiling for 2025 to bolster investments in European security, energy, and technological leadership.