Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down four points and are trading fractionally below fair value.

Not much conviction in the early going as market participants wait on details from the U.S.-China trade talks, which have extended into today. President Trump said he has been getting good reports but that "China's not easy."

There isn't much other news at the moment to supplant these trade negotiations as a market mover. Asian markets and European bourses have also walked a mixed and little-changed line, waiting on trade talk details.

The May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is the lone release on today's economic calendar. It showed an uptick to 98.8 from 95.8 in April.

The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.45%.

In corporate news:

• Apple (AAPL 200.98, -0.47, -0.2%): trading lower, with analysts and investors reportedly underwhelmed by updates from the Worldwide Developers Conference
• Casey's General (CASY 485.60, +46.31, +10.5%): Casey's General beats by $0.68, beats on revs, provides FY26 outlook; increases dividend
• J.M. Smucker (SJM 103.25, -8.60, -7.7%): beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line
• Paramount Global (PARA 11.95, -0.05, -0.4%) aiming to eliminate 3% of workforce, according to CNBC
• McDonald's (MCD 300.41, -4.37, -1.4%): downgraded to Sell from Buy at Redburn Atlantic (Morgan Stanley downgraded MCD yesterday, and Loop Capital downgraded MCD last Friday)
• Walt Disney (DIS 115.31, -0.35, -0.3%): to pay additional $438.7 mln to complete purchase of Comcast's stake in Hulu, according to The Wall Street Journal

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed, with modest changes on either side of the unchanged line. Japan's Nikkei +0.3%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.1%; China's Shanghai Composite -0.4%; India's Sensex -0.1%; South Korea's Kospi +0.6%; and Australia's All Ordinaries +0.8%
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's May Machine Tool Orders 3.4% (last 7.7%)
    • Australia's June Westpac Consumer 0.5% (last 2.2%); May NAB Business Confidence 2 (last -1)
    • South Korea's April Current Account $5.7 bln (last $9.1 bln)
  • In news:
    • The market's attention turned to reports that the U.S.-China trade talks in London were pushing into a second day and that no details were provided from the first day of discussions. President Trump said he had been getting good reports but that "China's not easy."
    • Japan's lead negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, will be returning to the U.S. on Friday to continue working out a deal but said, according to The Japan Times, that "it feels like we're still in a dense fog."
    • Japan's LDP is reportedly looking to provide cash handouts ahead of the upper house election this summer to deal with cost-of-living increases.
    • South Korea's Kospi traded higher Tuesday, but retailers were pressured by reports that a plan is being discussed to close supermarkets on public holidays.
    • Taiwan Semi reported a 39.6% yr/yr increase in sales in May and an 8.3% m/m decline.
• Major European indices are mixed and little changed as they, too, are awaiting some direction from the U.S.-China trade talks, which are continuing today in London. STOXX Europe 600 -0.1%; Germany's DAX -0.4%; U.K.'s FTSE 100 +0.4%; France's CAC 40 -0.1%; Italy's FTSE MIB -0.2%; Spain's IBEX 35 flat.
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's June Sentix Investor Confidence 0.2 (expected -5.3; last -8.1)
    • UK's April Unemployment Rate 4.6% (expected 4.6%; last 4.5%); Claimant Count Change 33.1K (expected 9.5K; last -21.2K); Average Earnings Index + Bonus 5.3% (expected 5.5%; last 5.6%)
    • Italy's Industrial Production 1.0% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.0%) and 0.3% yr/yr (last -1.8%)
    • Switzerland's SECO Consumer Climate -37 (expected -38; last -39)
  • In news:
    • The UK's FTSE 100 (+0.4%) is an upside outlier today following an April employment report that showed an uptick in the unemployment rate and weaker-than-expected average wage growth. Gilt yields and the pound traded lower after the news, lending some support to stocks that focused on the possibility of more rate cuts.
    • Markets were aided by a report that eurozone investor confidence increased in June, logging its first positive reading since June 2024.