Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 128 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 282 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.

The market is in rebound mode following Monday's steep losses, which were attributed to concerns about threats to the Fed's independence, trade worries, and continued weakness in the mega-cap stocks. A drop in the U.S. Dollar Index and a pickup in yield for the 10-yr note were construed as a "sell America" trade.

That said, the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 98.42, the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.39%, and the mega-cap stocks are trading higher, suggesting perhaps that the "sell America" trade is on ice for now. 

There has been a mixed batch of earnings results this morning, with 3M (MMM 131.68, +5.59, +4.4%) among the winning standouts and Northrop Grumman (NOC 479.99, -51.34, -9.7%) and Verizon (VZ 40.92, -2.01, -4.7%) among the losing standouts. Tesla (TSLA 228.81, +1.31, +0.6%) is the reporting headliner after today's close.

There is no U.S. economic data of note today, but there is a $69 billion 2-yr note sale. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET.

In corporate news:

• 3M (MMM 131.68, +5.59, +4.4%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line, organic sales growth of 1.5%; guides FY25 EPS in-line
• Danaher (DHR 192.25, +7.29, +3.9%): beats by $0.25, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS in-line; For full year 2025, there is no change to the Company's expectation that non-GAAP core revenue will grow approximately 3% year-over-year
• GE Aerospace (GE 183.49, +5.14, +2.9%): beats by $0.22; guides FY25 EPS in-line
• Kimberly-Clark (KMB 134.00, -6.07, -4.3%): beats by $0.03, misses on revs; lowers FY25 adj. free cash flow outlook
• Lockheed Martin (LMT 471.08, +12.75, +2.8%): beats by $0.94, beats on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, guides FY25 revs in-line
• Northrop Grumman (NOC 479.99, -51.34, -9.7%): misses by $0.18, misses on revs; guides FY25 EPS below consensus, revs in-line
• PulteGroup (PHM 94.50, +1.39, +1.5%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs
• Synchrony Financial (SYF 47.42, +0.19, +0.4%): beats by $0.22; Also increases quarterly cash dividend by 20% and approves a share repurchase program of up to $2.5 bln
• Tesla (TSLA 228.81, +1.31, +0.6%): to report its quarterly results after the close; stock down 43.7% year-to-date
• Verizon (VZ 40.92, -2.01, -4.7%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; 187,000 new net customers between broadband and wireless; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance 

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.3%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's February BoJ Core CPI 2.2% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.2%)
    • South Korea's March PPI 0.0% m/m (last 0.0%); 1.3% yr/yr (last 1.5%)
    • Hong Kong's March Unemployment Rate 3.2% (last 3.2%)
    • New Zealand's March trade surplus NZD970 mln (expected surplus of NZD80 mln; last surplus of NZD392 mln)
  • In news:
    • The Bank of Japan is expected to continue its tightening cycle despite threats to growth from U.S. trade policy. However, the market does not expect the BoJ to announce a rate hike on May 1.
    • Large e-commerce companies in China are trying to redirect some of their sales to the domestic market due to weakening international demand, according to FT.
    • Japanese bank regulators are encouraging banks to support small companies whose financing has been impacted by tariffs.
• Major European indices are mostly lower after returning from yesterday's Easter Monday closure. STOXX Europe 600: -0.8%, Germany's DAX: -0.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: unch, France's CAC 40: -0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • Spain's February trade deficit EUR3.42 bln (last deficit of EUR6.19 bln)
  • In news:
    • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that amid growing unpredictability, countries are "lining up" to work with the EU as a "strong, reliable partner."
    • The market did not receive any top-tier data, so the focus remains on potential tariff-related headline volatility.