Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 150 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 209 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

The market is still in a holding pattern ahead of today's tariff announcements. Contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow industrials indicate a lower open for the major equity indices.

The S&P 500 has recovered from early selling pressure so far this week, largely due to gains in the mega caps. Participants will be looking for signs of buy-the-dip interest again today.

Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday. The 10-yr yield is down two basis points to 4.16% and the 2-yr yield is unchanged at 3.86%.

Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 1.6%. Other data today include the March ADP Employment Change estimate at 8:15 ET, the February Factory Orders report at 10:00 ET, and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET.

In corporate news:

• nCino (NCNO 18.35, -9.77, -34.7%): misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS and revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS and revs below consensus; authorizes a $100 mln share repurchase program
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 153.35, +0.10, +0.1%): updates financial impact from imminent closing of its Intra-Cellular Therapies acquisition
• Walmart (WMT 88.47, -0.36, -0.4%): pushing China suppliers to lower prices amid new tariffs, according to Bloomberg
• Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF 3.14, +0.18, +6.1%): CEO disclosed the purchase of 1,586,088 shares of Class A Common Stock $2.91 - $3.03 worth more than $4.7 mln

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session with modest gains in most markets. Japan's Nikkei: +0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.8%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's March Monetary Base -3.2% yr/yr (expected -1.5%; prior -1.9%)
    • South Korea's March CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 2.1% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; prior 2.0%)
    • India's March Manufacturing PMI 58.1 (expected 57.6; last 56.3)
    • Australia's March AIG Construction Index -19.3 (last -3.7) and AIG Manufacturing Index -29.7 (last -8.2). February Building Approvals -0.3% m/m (expected -1.4%; last 6.9%); 9.1% yr/yr (last 9.4%). February Private House Approvals 1.0% m/m (last 1.4%)
    • New Zealand's February Building Consents 0.7% m/m (last 2.6%)
  • In news:
    • Hedge funds have reportedly been reducing their exposure to Asia leading up to today's tariff announcement from the White House.
    • Bank of Japan Governor Ueda warned that tariffs could have a significant impact on global trade and economic growth.
    • South Korea's acting President Han called for calm ahead of Friday's court decision about impeaching former President Yoon.
• Major European indices trade in the red as the market awaits today's tariff announcement from the White House. STOXX Europe 60: -0.8%, Germany's DAX: -1.3%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.7%, France's CAC 40: -0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.9%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%.
  • In economic data:
    • France's February government budget deficit EUR40.3 bln (expected deficit of EUR30.2 bln; last deficit of EUR17.3 bln)
    • Spain's March Unemployment Change -13,300 (expected -2,500; last -6,000)
  • In news:
    • Germany's banking association lowered its domestic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.2% from 0.7% while Italy's business lobby lowered its domestic forecast to 0.6% from 0.9% with a worst-case scenario projecting growth of just 0.2%.
    • Greece plans to increase its military spending by EUR25 bln over the next 12 years.