Stock Market Update

Total retail sales increased 1.4% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%) following an unrevised 0.2% increase in February. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.3%) in February.

The complicated element -- and key takeaway from the report -- is that the strength has a lot to do ostensibly with getting ahead of the tariff actions, which is to say the strength may not be sustained. If there is a counterargument to that point, it is that sales at food services and drinking places were up a robust 1.8% in March after declining 0.8% in February.

Separately, industrial production decreased 0.3% in March (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) and capacity utilization declined to 77.8% in March (Briefing.com consensus 77.9%) from 78.2% in February. 

The S&P 500 futures are down 59 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 339 points and are trading 1.8% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 146 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.