Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had a choppy start to April and Q2. The major equity indices traded above and below prior closing levels as investors wait on tomorrow's tariff announcements and digest this morning's economic data. 

The market moved lower right out of the gate and selling increased in response to release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.0%; Briefing.com consensus 49.8%; prior 50.3%). The report showed that manufacturing activity contracted in March while prices grew sharply for the second month in a row.

The data piled onto the market's growing fears about growth, which could translate into lower earnings prospects, that have been heightened by uncertainty on the tariff front. 

Turnaround action in the mega cap space led the market higher. Apple (AAPL 223.19, +1.06, +0.5%), Microsoft (MSFT 382.19, +6.80, +1.8%), and NVIDIA (NVDA 110.15, +1.77, +1.6%), which comprise nearly 20% of the S&P 500 in terms of market cap, were among the influential winners. 

Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors registered gains led by consumer discretionary (+1.1%), communication services (+1.0%), and technology (+1.0%). The health care (-1.8%) and financial (-0.2%) sectors were alone in the red at the close.

Treasuries settled with gains across the curve. The 10-yr yield dropped nine basis points to 4.16% and the 2-yr yield settled five basis points lower at 3.86%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.3% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.2% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -5.9% YTD
• Russell 2000: -9.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -9.6% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 50.2; Prior 49.8
• March ISM Manufacturing Index 49.0% (Briefing.com consensus 49.8%); Prior 50.3%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there is a bad mix of decelerating activity, rising prices, and weakening employment for the manufacturing sector. It is the kind of mix that will stir talk of stagflation.
• February JOLTS - Job Openings 7.568 mln; Prior was revised to 7.762 mln from 7.740 mln
• February Construction Spending 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to -0.5% from -0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in private residential spending was concentrated in multifamily construction.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants receive the following data:

• 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -2.0%)
• 8:15 ET: March ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 120,000; prior 77,000)
• 10:00 ET: February Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 1.7%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.34 mln)