Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are down four points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 49 point and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

There's a negative bias in early trading. Pre-open declines in some mega caps have contributed to the downbeat morning, along with ongoing angst about US trade policy.

Treasuries have experienced increased buying. The 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.33% and the 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 3.98%.

Today's lineup features the Fed's preferred gauge on inflation in the form of PCE Price Indexes at 8:30 ET.

In corporate news:

• lululemon athletica (LULU 302.25, -39.28, -11.5%): beats by $0.29, reports revs in-line, comps of +4% on CC basis; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
• Oxford Industries (OXM 55.00, -7.54, -12.1%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
• Braze (BRZE 40.60, +3.90, +10.6%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line;  agrees to acquire OfferFit, an AI decisioning company, for $325 million; expected to close in the fiscal quarter ending July 31
• Dutch Bros (BROS 64.64, -0.37, -0.6%): announces its plans to launch a line of Dutch Bros packaged coffee and related products to be sold in retail outlets in partnership with Trilliant Food & Nutrition; reiterates long-term growth strategy; sees Q1 same-shop sales growth of +4.6% through March 24

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3% (+0.7% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.7% (-1.1% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7% (-0.4% for the week), India's Sensex: -0.3% (+0.7% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -1.9% (-3.2% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1% (+0.5% for the week).
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's March Tokyo CPI 2.9% m/m (last 2.8%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; last 2.2%)
    • Singapore's February Bank Lending SGD841.1 bln (last SGD836.3 bln)
  • In news:
    • Tariff talk continued weighing on investor sentiment in most markets with Japanese automakers showing relative weakness.
    • Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba floated a plan to offer liquidity support to companies impacted by tariffs.
    • The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from its March meeting showed that the central bank will need to downshift its accommodative stance to a neutral one.
    • Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu expressed optimism about China's AI competitiveness.
    • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock warned against premature easing.
• Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: -0.4% (-1.0% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: -0.6% (-1.6% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1% (+0.3% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: -0.6% (-1.3% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.5% (-0.3% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.6% (UNCH week-to-date).
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's March Business and Consumer Survey 95.2 (expected 97.0; last 96.3)
    • Germany's April GfK Consumer Climate -24.5 (expected -22.6; last -24.6). March Unemployment Change 26,000 (expected 10,000; last 9,000) and March Unemployment Rate 6.3% (expected 6.2%; last 6.2%)
    • U.K.'s Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.0%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.4%; last 0.9%). Q4 Business Investment 1.8% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last 5.6%). February Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.6%); 2.2% yr/yr (expected 0.5%: last 0.6%). February Core Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.6%); 2.2% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.8%). January trade deficit GBP17.85 bln (expected deficit of GBP16.8 bln; last deficit of GBP19.7 bln)
    • France's flash March CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.0%); 0.8% yr/yr (last 0.8%). February PPI -0.5% m/m (last 0.8%); -1.4% yr/yr (last -2.2%). February Consumer Spending -0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.6%)
    • Italy's March Business Confidence 86.0 (expected 87.5; last 86.9) and Consumer Confidence 95.0 (last 98.8). January Industrial Sales 3.8% m/m (last -2.7%); 1.7% yr/yr (last -7.2%)
    • Spain's March CPI 0.1% m/m (last 0.4%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 3.0%). March Core CPI 2.0% yr/yr (last 2.2%)
    • Swiss March KOF Leading Indicators 103.9 (expected 102.5; last 102.6)
  • In news:
    • Investors are exhibiting reduced confidence in European stocks and the euro, anticipating potential trade war implications from President Trump's forthcoming reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day."
    • Major asset managers, including Amundi and Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, have scaled back bullish positions on European equities and the euro.
    • European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos spoke favorably about inflation returning to target while Bank of England Governor Bailey said that inflation risks in the U.K. remain elevated.