Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 73 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 49 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

There's a positive bias in early trading as participants wait on the March FOMC decision today at 2:00 ET. Large cap tech stocks are higher in pre-market action, contributing to the upside moves after leading declines in the equity market yesterday. 

Treasury yields are slightly higher in front of the FOMC decision and Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 ET. The 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 4.29% and the 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 4.05%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 6.2%. Other data today include the weekly crude oil inventories at 10:30 ET and the January Net Long-Term TIC Flows at 4:00 ET.

In corporate news:

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM 235.32, +0.35, +0.2%): increases its quarterly dividend by 12% to $1.40 per share
• Tesla (TSLA 232.69, +7.38, +3.3%): inches higher after receiving approval for passenger transportation in California, according to Bloomberg
• General Mills (GIS 58.00, -2.44, -4.0%): beats by $0.16, misses on revs; Lowers FY25 organic net sales and adjusted EPS growth guidance
• Signet Jewelers (SIG 54.01, +5.71, +11.8%): beats by $0.37, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
• Morgan Stanley (MS 118.15, +0.04, +0.03%): aiming to eliminate about 2,000 employees, according to Bloomberg
• TSMC (TSM 172.50, -0.63, -0.4%): board member says that Intel (INTC) foundry takeover rumors are not accurate, according to Digitimes 

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mixed showing on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%.
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's February trade surplus JPY584.5 bln (expected JPY722.8 bln; last deficit of JPY2.736.6 trln). February Imports -0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.1%; last 16.2%) and Exports 11.4% yr/yr (expected 12.1%; last 7.3%). January Core Machinery Orders -3.5% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.8%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 6.9%; last 4.3%). March Reuters Tankan Index -1 (last 3). January Industrial Production -1.1% m/m, as expected (last -0.3%) and Capacity Utilization 4.5% m/m (last 0.1%)
    • Singapore's Q4 Unemployment Rate 1.9%, as expected (last 1.9%)
    • Australia's February MI Leading Index 0.1% m/m (last 0.1%)
    • New Zealand's Q1 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 89.2 (last 97.5). Q4 Current Account deficit NZD7.04 bln (expected deficit of NZD6.68 bln; last deficit of NZD10.58 bln)
  • In news:
    • Japan's trade balance report for February showed the first drop in imports since November.
    • China's President Xi is reportedly angry that CK Hutchinson did not discuss its sale of Panama Canal assets to BlackRock with the government.
    • The Bank of Japan voted 9-0 to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, which was widely expected.
    • Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia took steps to stabilize the rupiah after a volatile Tuesday in the country's equity market.
• Major European indices are mixed. STOXX Europe 600: UNCH, Germany's DAX: -0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: +0.5%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's February CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.3%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.5%). February Core CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -0.9%); 2.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.7%). Q4 Wages 4.1% yr/yr (last 4.3%) and Q4 Labor Cost Index 3.7% yr/yr (last 4.5%)
  • In news:
    • Vanguard announced its support for Euronext's initiative to consolidate over 3,300 exchange-traded product listings onto a single exchange, aiming to reduce market fragmentation and lower trading costs for retail investors.
    • There was ongoing focus on plans for increased defense spending after Germany's government reformed its debt rules.
    • British Chancellor Reeves will reportedly announce additional public spending cuts next week.